Closing spread
NYG -6.5
Total
47
Model margin
-5.1est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.074EPA / play-0.050
- 40.8%Success rate39.2%
- -0.035EPA / dropback-0.011
- -0.142EPA / rush-0.131
- 7.3%Explosive rate9.2%
- -1.63CPOE-1.42
- 36.0%Third-down rate36.2%
- 61.2%Red-zone TD rate57.8%
- 1.46Points / drive1.37
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 40.4 points. CLE are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 15/27 | 194 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashad Jennings | 15 | 55 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Paul Perkins | 9 | 29 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Sterling Shepard | 1 | 22 | 22.0 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 6 | 11 | 96 | 2 |
| Victor Cruz | 1 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Roger Lewis | 1 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Paul Perkins | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Dwayne Harris | 1 | 1 | 13 | 1 |
| Will Tye | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Rashad Jennings | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh McCown | 25/43 | 322 | 1 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Crowell | 16 | 44 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrelle Pryor | 6 | 12 | 131 | 0 |
| Isaiah Crowell | 6 | 7 | 47 | 0 |
| Seth DeValve | 3 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| Corey Coleman | 3 | 7 | 38 | 1 |
| Rashard Higgins | 2 | 2 | 34 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 3 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Gary Barnidge | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Andrew Hawkins | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Danny Vitale | 1 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
3.19%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
35.5%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.55
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-3.33
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-5.14