2016 · Week 12

Final

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

27·13

Browns

Cleveland

QB Josh McCown

FirstEnergy Stadium · outdoors · grass · 48°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

NYG -6.5

Total

47

Model margin

-5.1est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapBrowns
  • -0.074EPA / play-0.050
  • 40.8%Success rate39.2%
  • -0.035EPA / dropback-0.011
  • -0.142EPA / rush-0.131
  • 7.3%Explosive rate9.2%
  • -1.63CPOE-1.42
  • 36.0%Third-down rate36.2%
  • 61.2%Red-zone TD rate57.8%
  • 1.46Points / drive1.37
  • 2.4%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYG lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 40.4 points. CLE are 2-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W3NYG @ CLE21–15NYG
2020 · W15CLE @ NYG20–6CLE
2012 · W5CLE @ NYG27–41NYG
2008 · W6NYG @ CLE14–35CLE
2004 · W3CLE @ NYG10–27NYG
2000 · W10NYG @ CLE24–3NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–CLE
NYGQ1 15:0032Punt0–0
CLEQ1 13:41629Punt0–0
NYGQ1 8:56929Punt0–0
CLEQ1 4:16516Punt0–0
NYGQ1 2:28942Punt0–0
CLEQ2 12:1232Punt0–0
NYGQ2 10:3947Punt0–0
CLEQ2 8:33216Turnover0–0
NYGQ2 7:45231Touchdown7–0
CLEQ2 7:0336Punt7–0
CLEQ2 5:34928Field goal7–3
NYGQ2 1:43469Touchdown14–3
CLEQ2 1:13943Field goal14–6
CLEQ3 15:00834Punt14–6
NYGQ3 9:5936Punt14–6
CLEQ3 8:04518Punt14–6
NYGQ3 5:0432Punt14–6
CLEQ3 4:0237Punt14–6
NYGQ3 2:48522Punt14–6
CLEQ3 0:143-3Punt14–6
NYGQ4 13:5632Punt14–6
CLEQ4 12:47343Opp touchdown20–6
CLEQ4 10:58560Touchdown20–13
NYGQ4 8:17673Touchdown27–13
NYGQ4 5:1000Touchdown27–13
CLEQ4 5:10835Turnover on downs27–13
NYGQ4 2:32313Punt27–13
CLEQ4 1:3529Turnover27–13
NYGQ4 0:5200End of half27–13

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning15/2719430

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rashad Jennings15553.70
Paul Perkins9293.20
Sterling Shepard12222.00
Eli Manning2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Odell Beckham Jr.611962
Victor Cruz15370
Roger Lewis14180
Paul Perkins22140
Dwayne Harris11131
Will Tye22120
Rashad Jennings2240

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh McCown25/4332210
Duke Johnson0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Isaiah Crowell16442.80
Duke Johnson5142.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terrelle Pryor6121310
Isaiah Crowell67470
Seth DeValve34390
Corey Coleman37381
Rashard Higgins22340
Duke Johnson35260
Gary Barnidge13110
Andrew Hawkins0200
Danny Vitale11-40

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -6.53.0%3.3%4.9%3.2%7.4%6.4%3.5%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

3.19%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

35.5%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.55
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-3.33
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-5.14