Closing spread
NYG -3
Total
38
Model margin
+4.0est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Giants
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.147EPA / play-0.028
- 38.6%Success rate43.5%
- -0.067EPA / dropback-0.017
- -0.251EPA / rush-0.044
- 7.6%Explosive rate8.2%
- 29.2%Third-down rate29.5%
- 50.7%Red-zone TD rate53.1%
- 1.18Points / drive1.65
- 3.8%Turnover rate2.2%
- -0.002EPA / play allowed+0.008
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 40.4 points. NYG are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 21/31 | 180 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Green | 15 | 91 | 6.1 | 0 |
| James Jackson | 5 | 24 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Warner | 19/27 | 286 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 23 | 106 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Mike Cloud | 6 | 12 | 2.0 | 1 |
| Kurt Warner | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.8%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.44
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.01