Closing spread
NYG -7.5
Total
44
Model margin
+4.4est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Giants
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.068EPA / play+0.086
- 39.6%Success rate46.8%
- -0.069EPA / dropback+0.142
- -0.066EPA / rush-0.000
- 7.9%Explosive rate10.8%
- -4.22CPOE+0.81
- 30.6%Third-down rate41.8%
- 58.2%Red-zone TD rate57.2%
- 1.48Points / drive2.27
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 40.4 points. NYG are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Weeden | 22/35 | 291 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Richardson | 17 | 81 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Brandon Weeden | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jordan Norwood | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Gordon | 2 | 8 | 82 | 2 |
| Jordan Norwood | 9 | 9 | 81 | 0 |
| Chris Ogbonnaya | 3 | 4 | 54 | 0 |
| Trent Richardson | 5 | 7 | 47 | 0 |
| Jordan Cameron | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Greg Little | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 25/37 | 259 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 30 | 200 | 6.7 | 1 |
| David Wilson | 2 | 44 | 22.0 | 1 |
| Eli Manning | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rueben Randle | 6 | 9 | 82 | 0 |
| Domenik Hixon | 5 | 8 | 55 | 0 |
| Victor Cruz | 5 | 8 | 50 | 3 |
| Martellus Bennett | 3 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 4 | 6 | 29 | 0 |
| Bear Pascoe | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Jerrel Jernigan | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
2.18%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.9%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.17
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+4.42