2012 · Week 5

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Brandon Weeden

27·41

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 51°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

NYG -7.5

Total

44

Model margin

+4.4est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapGiants
  • -0.068EPA / play+0.086
  • 39.6%Success rate46.8%
  • -0.069EPA / dropback+0.142
  • -0.066EPA / rush-0.000
  • 7.9%Explosive rate10.8%
  • -4.22CPOE+0.81
  • 30.6%Third-down rate41.8%
  • 58.2%Red-zone TD rate57.2%
  • 1.48Points / drive2.27
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYG lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 40.4 points. NYG are 5-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W3NYG @ CLE21–15NYG
2020 · W15CLE @ NYG20–6CLE
2016 · W12NYG @ CLE27–13NYG
2008 · W6NYG @ CLE14–35CLE
2004 · W3CLE @ NYG10–27NYG
2000 · W10NYG @ CLE24–3NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–NYG
NYGQ1 15:0012Turnover0–0
CLEQ1 14:45222Touchdown7–0
NYGQ1 14:08618Punt7–0
CLEQ1 12:14580Touchdown14–0
NYGQ1 10:031394Touchdown14–7
CLEQ1 3:221060Field goal17–7
NYGQ2 13:391368Field goal17–10
CLEQ2 6:46750Turnover17–10
NYGQ2 3:46240Touchdown17–17
CLEQ2 2:5200Touchdown17–17
NYGQ2 2:37529Touchdown17–24
CLEQ2 1:10516Punt17–24
NYGQ2 0:17212Field goal17–27
CLEQ3 15:00828Punt17–27
NYGQ3 10:19995Touchdown17–34
CLEQ3 5:0637Field goal20–34
NYGQ3 3:27727Punt20–34
CLEQ3 0:4234Punt20–34
NYGQ4 14:3832Turnover20–34
CLEQ4 12:53832Turnover20–34
NYGQ4 9:05680Touchdown20–41
CLEQ4 5:41776Touchdown27–41
NYGQ4 3:56636End of half27–41

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brandon Weeden22/3529122

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Trent Richardson17814.81
Brandon Weeden122.00
Jordan Norwood111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Josh Gordon28822
Jordan Norwood99810
Chris Ogbonnaya34540
Trent Richardson57470
Jordan Cameron22260
Benjamin Watson1310
Greg Little0200

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning25/3725931

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ahmad Bradshaw302006.71
David Wilson24422.01
Eli Manning2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rueben Randle69820
Domenik Hixon58550
Victor Cruz58503
Martellus Bennett34300
Ahmad Bradshaw46290
Bear Pascoe1170
Jerrel Jernigan1160

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.53.6%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

2.18%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.9%

Expected total

46.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.17
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+4.42