2020 · Week 15

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Baker Mayfield

20·6

Giants

New York

QB Colt McCoy

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 36°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

CLE -6

Total

44.5

Model margin

+1.4est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

2.8%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapGiants
  • +0.091EPA / play-0.057
  • 46.9%Success rate42.1%
  • +0.193EPA / dropback-0.051
  • -0.034EPA / rush-0.067
  • 11.2%Explosive rate7.5%
  • +2.55CPOE-2.04
  • 45.5%Third-down rate35.1%
  • 71.8%Red-zone TD rate51.7%
  • 2.32Points / drive1.57
  • 1.5%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYG lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 40.4 points. NYG are 5-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W3NYG @ CLE21–15NYG
2016 · W12NYG @ CLE27–13NYG
2012 · W5CLE @ NYG27–41NYG
2008 · W6NYG @ CLE14–35CLE
2004 · W3CLE @ NYG10–27NYG
2000 · W10NYG @ CLE24–3NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–NYG
NYGQ1 15:00940Turnover on downs0–0
CLEQ1 11:361049Turnover on downs0–0
NYGQ1 7:05638Field goal0–3
CLEQ1 4:121375Touchdown7–3
NYGQ2 12:311268Turnover on downs7–3
CLEQ2 5:161095Touchdown13–3
NYGQ2 0:2100End of half13–3
CLEQ3 15:00418Punt13–3
NYGQ3 12:02942Punt13–3
CLEQ3 5:5715115Touchdown20–3
NYGQ4 12:53625Punt20–3
CLEQ4 10:17615Punt20–3
NYGQ4 6:25856Field goal20–6
CLEQ4 4:07625Punt20–6
NYGQ4 1:05420End of half20–6

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield27/3229720

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Nick Chubb15503.31
D'Ernest Johnson4246.00
Kareem Hunt7213.00
Baker Mayfield4112.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rashard Higgins45760
Jarvis Landry78611
Donovan Peoples-Jones33550
Austin Hooper56411
David Njoku11220
Harrison Bryant22190
Nick Chubb22160
Kareem Hunt3370

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Colt McCoy19/3122100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alfred Morris7395.60
Wayne Gallman9293.20
Dion Lewis144.00
Colt McCoy231.50
Sterling Shepard1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Darius Slayton49740
Sterling Shepard47510
Evan Engram47460
Dion Lewis22140
Levine Toilolo11140
Golden Tate23130
Kaden Smith1100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -64.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

2.80%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.7%

Expected total

42.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.85
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.42
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+1.35