Closing spread
CLE -6
Total
44.5
Model margin
+1.4est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
2.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Giants
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.091EPA / play-0.057
- 46.9%Success rate42.1%
- +0.193EPA / dropback-0.051
- -0.034EPA / rush-0.067
- 11.2%Explosive rate7.5%
- +2.55CPOE-2.04
- 45.5%Third-down rate35.1%
- 71.8%Red-zone TD rate51.7%
- 2.32Points / drive1.57
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 40.4 points. NYG are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 27/32 | 297 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chubb | 15 | 50 | 3.3 | 1 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 4 | 24 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 7 | 21 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Baker Mayfield | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashard Higgins | 4 | 5 | 76 | 0 |
| Jarvis Landry | 7 | 8 | 61 | 1 |
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | 3 | 3 | 55 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 5 | 6 | 41 | 1 |
| David Njoku | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| Harrison Bryant | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Nick Chubb | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 3 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colt McCoy | 19/31 | 221 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfred Morris | 7 | 39 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Wayne Gallman | 9 | 29 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Colt McCoy | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Sterling Shepard | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darius Slayton | 4 | 9 | 74 | 0 |
| Sterling Shepard | 4 | 7 | 51 | 0 |
| Evan Engram | 4 | 7 | 46 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Levine Toilolo | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Kaden Smith | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
2.80%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.7%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.85
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+1.42
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+1.35