2008 · Week 7
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 59°F · wind 5mph
Closing spread
WAS -7
Total
41.5
Model margin
+5.4est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
5.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Commanders
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.155EPA / play-0.032
- 36.2%Success rate42.3%
- -0.205EPA / dropback+0.004
- -0.086EPA / rush-0.080
- 6.7%Explosive rate7.5%
- -11.69CPOE-1.49
- 33.5%Third-down rate36.0%
- 29.2%Red-zone TD rate55.0%
- 1.05Points / drive1.37
- 2.6%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
WAS lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 42.9 points. WAS are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Anderson | 14/37 | 136 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 19 | 80 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Jerome Harrison | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Derek Anderson | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Jason Wright | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Josh Cribbs | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Campbell | 14/23 | 164 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 27 | 175 | 6.5 | 1 |
| Rock Cartwright | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Shaun Alexander | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Jason Campbell | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Fred Davis | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
4.95%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.3%
Expected total
40.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.80
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+5.37