2016 · Week 4

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Cody Kessler

20·31

Commanders

Washington

QB Kirk Cousins

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 67°F · wind 1mph

Closing spread

WAS -7.5

Total

48

Model margin

+5.5est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapCommanders
  • -0.050EPA / play+0.118
  • 39.2%Success rate48.2%
  • -0.011EPA / dropback+0.202
  • -0.131EPA / rush-0.033
  • 9.2%Explosive rate10.6%
  • -1.42CPOE+4.99
  • 36.2%Third-down rate44.9%
  • 57.8%Red-zone TD rate51.2%
  • 1.37Points / drive2.32
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

WAS lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 42.9 points. WAS are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W5CLE @ WAS13–34WAS
2022 · W17CLE @ WAS24–10CLE
2020 · W3WAS @ CLE20–34CLE
2012 · W15WAS @ CLE38–21WAS
2008 · W7CLE @ WAS11–14WAS
2004 · W4WAS @ CLE13–17CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–WAS
WASQ1 15:001385Touchdown0–7
CLEQ1 7:40620Punt0–7
WASQ1 4:41930Touchdown0–14
CLEQ1 0:271281Touchdown7–14
WASQ2 9:3310Turnover7–14
CLEQ2 9:2049Touchdown14–14
WASQ2 7:551042Field goal14–17
CLEQ2 2:29736Field goal17–17
CLEQ3 15:001149Field goal20–17
WASQ3 9:25516Punt20–17
CLEQ3 5:461063Turnover20–17
WASQ3 1:071280Touchdown20–24
CLEQ4 10:39330Turnover20–24
WASQ4 9:3247Punt20–24
CLEQ4 7:1428Turnover20–24
WASQ4 6:28539Touchdown20–31
CLEQ4 4:25838Turnover on downs20–31
WASQ4 2:0332Punt20–31
CLEQ4 1:41846End of half20–31

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cody Kessler28/4022311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Isaiah Crowell161207.51
Duke Johnson8455.60
Malcolm Johnson122.00
Cody Kessler221.00
Terrelle Pryor1-6-6.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Gary Barnidge77570
Terrelle Pryor59461
Duke Johnson68310
Andrew Hawkins33280
Ricardo Louis35280
Isaiah Crowell34220
Malcolm Johnson11110
Randall Telfer0100

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins21/2718331

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Jones221175.31
Chris Thompson3248.00
Rob Kelley144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jordan Reed910732
Pierre Garcon45390
Matt Jones22210
Jamison Crowder23210
Chris Thompson24161
Vernon Davis1180
DeSean Jackson1250

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.53.4%6.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

2.21%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.6%

Expected total

45.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.76
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.50