2016 · Week 4
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 67°F · wind 1mph
Closing spread
WAS -7.5
Total
48
Model margin
+5.5est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Commanders
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.050EPA / play+0.118
- 39.2%Success rate48.2%
- -0.011EPA / dropback+0.202
- -0.131EPA / rush-0.033
- 9.2%Explosive rate10.6%
- -1.42CPOE+4.99
- 36.2%Third-down rate44.9%
- 57.8%Red-zone TD rate51.2%
- 1.37Points / drive2.32
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
WAS lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 42.9 points. WAS are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Kessler | 28/40 | 223 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Crowell | 16 | 120 | 7.5 | 1 |
| Duke Johnson | 8 | 45 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Malcolm Johnson | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Cody Kessler | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Terrelle Pryor | 1 | -6 | -6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gary Barnidge | 7 | 7 | 57 | 0 |
| Terrelle Pryor | 5 | 9 | 46 | 1 |
| Duke Johnson | 6 | 8 | 31 | 0 |
| Andrew Hawkins | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Ricardo Louis | 3 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Isaiah Crowell | 3 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Malcolm Johnson | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Randall Telfer | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 21/27 | 183 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Jones | 22 | 117 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Chris Thompson | 3 | 24 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Rob Kelley | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Reed | 9 | 10 | 73 | 2 |
| Pierre Garcon | 4 | 5 | 39 | 0 |
| Matt Jones | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Jamison Crowder | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Chris Thompson | 2 | 4 | 16 | 1 |
| Vernon Davis | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
2.21%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.6%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.76
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.50