2022 · Week 17

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Deshaun Watson

24·10

Commanders

Washington

QB Carson Wentz

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 59°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

WAS -1

Total

41.5

Model margin

+4.5est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapCommanders
  • +0.013EPA / play-0.066
  • 44.1%Success rate40.9%
  • +0.021EPA / dropback-0.045
  • +0.002EPA / rush-0.092
  • 9.8%Explosive rate8.0%
  • +1.05CPOE-1.41
  • 39.0%Third-down rate34.9%
  • 56.3%Red-zone TD rate61.4%
  • 1.91Points / drive1.48
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

WAS lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 42.9 points. WAS are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W5CLE @ WAS13–34WAS
2020 · W3WAS @ CLE20–34CLE
2016 · W4CLE @ WAS20–31WAS
2012 · W15WAS @ CLE38–21WAS
2008 · W7CLE @ WAS11–14WAS
2004 · W4WAS @ CLE13–17CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–WAS
CLEQ1 15:00811Punt0–0
WASQ1 11:3834Turnover0–0
CLEQ1 10:48417Field goal3–0
WASQ1 9:22937Turnover on downs3–0
CLEQ1 3:51652Turnover on downs3–0
WASQ1 0:1865Turnover3–0
CLEQ2 13:1432Punt3–0
WASQ2 11:482196Touchdown3–7
CLEQ2 0:2100End of half3–7
WASQ3 15:003-2Punt3–7
CLEQ3 12:53663Touchdown10–7
WASQ3 10:03620Punt10–7
CLEQ3 6:561389Touchdown17–7
WASQ3 0:36850Field goal17–10
CLEQ4 10:26970Touchdown24–10
WASQ4 5:21835Turnover24–10
CLEQ4 3:113-1Punt24–10
WASQ4 2:45410Turnover on downs24–10
CLEQ4 2:0311Punt24–10
WASQ4 0:2415End of half24–10

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Deshaun Watson9/1816930

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Nick Chubb141047.40
Deshaun Watson8313.90
Jerome Ford591.80
Jacoby Brissett122.00
Kareem Hunt200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amari Cooper341052
David Njoku13210
Harrison Bryant23190
Donovan Peoples-Jones13131
Nick Chubb11120
Kareem Hunt11-10

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Wentz16/2814303

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brian Robinson24873.60
Jonathan Williams9303.30
Terry McLaurin11212.00
Carson Wentz372.31

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Logan Thomas67560
Jahan Dotson37370
Terry McLaurin25250
Cam Sims11160
Curtis Samuel1260
Jonathan Williams3530
Brian Robinson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +13.6%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

2.10%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.1%

Expected total

43.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.16
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.95
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.50