2022 · Week 17
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 59°F · wind 9mph
Closing spread
WAS -1
Total
41.5
Model margin
+4.5est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Commanders
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.013EPA / play-0.066
- 44.1%Success rate40.9%
- +0.021EPA / dropback-0.045
- +0.002EPA / rush-0.092
- 9.8%Explosive rate8.0%
- +1.05CPOE-1.41
- 39.0%Third-down rate34.9%
- 56.3%Red-zone TD rate61.4%
- 1.91Points / drive1.48
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
WAS lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 42.9 points. WAS are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 9/18 | 169 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chubb | 14 | 104 | 7.4 | 0 |
| Deshaun Watson | 8 | 31 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Jerome Ford | 5 | 9 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amari Cooper | 3 | 4 | 105 | 2 |
| David Njoku | 1 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Harrison Bryant | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | 1 | 3 | 13 | 1 |
| Nick Chubb | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 16/28 | 143 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Robinson | 24 | 87 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Jonathan Williams | 9 | 30 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Terry McLaurin | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Carson Wentz | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Thomas | 6 | 7 | 56 | 0 |
| Jahan Dotson | 3 | 7 | 37 | 0 |
| Terry McLaurin | 2 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Cam Sims | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Jonathan Williams | 3 | 5 | 3 | 0 |
| Brian Robinson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
2.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.1%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.16
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+2.95
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.50