2012 · Week 15
Final
Cleveland Browns Stadium · outdoors · grass · 59°F · wind 18mph
Closing spread
CLE -4
Total
40.5
Model margin
+1.4est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Browns
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.137EPA / play-0.068
- 46.7%Success rate39.6%
- +0.233EPA / dropback-0.069
- +0.030EPA / rush-0.066
- 12.8%Explosive rate7.9%
- +4.84CPOE-4.22
- 35.5%Third-down rate30.6%
- 67.7%Red-zone TD rate58.2%
- 2.11Points / drive1.48
- 1.4%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
WAS lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 42.9 points. CLE are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 26/37 | 329 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfred Morris | 27 | 87 | 3.2 | 2 |
| Kirk Cousins | 3 | 22 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Evan Royster | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Garcon | 6 | 12 | 65 | 0 |
| Josh Morgan | 4 | 4 | 60 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 5 | 6 | 57 | 0 |
| Leonard Hankerson | 2 | 3 | 56 | 2 |
| Logan Paulsen | 4 | 5 | 47 | 0 |
| Evan Royster | 2 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Alfred Morris | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Weeden | 21/35 | 244 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Richardson | 11 | 28 | 2.5 | 2 |
| Josh Cribbs | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Weeden | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Montario Hardesty | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Little | 5 | 9 | 74 | 0 |
| Travis Benjamin | 1 | 1 | 69 | 1 |
| Jordan Cameron | 3 | 3 | 34 | 0 |
| Josh Gordon | 3 | 8 | 27 | 0 |
| Mohamed Massaquoi | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 2 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Trent Richardson | 3 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| Josh Cribbs | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
2.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.8%
Expected total
46.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.67
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+2.57
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.39