2012 · Week 15

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Kirk Cousins

38·21

Browns

Cleveland

QB Brandon Weeden

Cleveland Browns Stadium · outdoors · grass · 59°F · wind 18mph

Closing spread

CLE -4

Total

40.5

Model margin

+1.4est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapBrowns
  • +0.137EPA / play-0.068
  • 46.7%Success rate39.6%
  • +0.233EPA / dropback-0.069
  • +0.030EPA / rush-0.066
  • 12.8%Explosive rate7.9%
  • +4.84CPOE-4.22
  • 35.5%Third-down rate30.6%
  • 67.7%Red-zone TD rate58.2%
  • 2.11Points / drive1.48
  • 1.4%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

WAS lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 42.9 points. CLE are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W5CLE @ WAS13–34WAS
2022 · W17CLE @ WAS24–10CLE
2020 · W3WAS @ CLE20–34CLE
2016 · W4CLE @ WAS20–31WAS
2008 · W7CLE @ WAS11–14WAS
2004 · W4WAS @ CLE13–17CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–CLE
WASQ1 15:00310Punt0–0
CLEQ1 13:20735Punt0–0
WASQ1 9:4530Turnover0–6
CLEQ1 8:5016Touchdown0–7
WASQ1 8:413-5Punt0–7
CLEQ1 6:5839Punt0–7
WASQ1 4:5932Punt0–7
CLEQ1 3:593-5Punt6–7
WASQ1 2:26154Touchdown7–7
CLEQ1 2:16619Punt7–7
WASQ2 14:53741Punt7–7
CLEQ2 10:1939Punt7–7
WASQ2 9:22851Field goal10–7
CLEQ2 5:461070Touchdown10–14
WASQ2 1:1146End of half10–14
CLEQ3 15:0021Turnover10–14
WASQ3 14:12315Touchdown17–14
CLEQ3 13:1436Punt17–14
WASQ3 11:24760Touchdown24–14
CLEQ3 7:40527Turnover on downs24–14
WASQ3 5:40730Punt24–14
CLEQ3 2:21340Turnover24–14
WASQ3 1:011067Touchdown31–14
CLEQ4 11:19372Touchdown31–21
WASQ4 10:11870Touchdown38–21
CLEQ4 5:0042Turnover on downs38–21
WASQ4 3:34730End of half38–21

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins26/3732921

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alfred Morris27873.22
Kirk Cousins3227.30
Evan Royster231.51

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Pierre Garcon612650
Josh Morgan44600
Santana Moss56570
Leonard Hankerson23562
Logan Paulsen45470
Evan Royster24300
Alfred Morris2260

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brandon Weeden21/3524412

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Trent Richardson11282.52
Josh Cribbs11616.00
Brandon Weeden199.00
Montario Hardesty252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Greg Little59740
Travis Benjamin11691
Jordan Cameron33340
Josh Gordon38270
Mohamed Massaquoi23160
Benjamin Watson24120
Alex Smith2280
Trent Richardson3440
Josh Cribbs0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +44.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

2.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.8%

Expected total

46.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.67
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.57
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.39