2024 · Week 5
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 73°F · wind 5mph
Closing spread
WAS -3
Total
44
Model margin
+8.3est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
7.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Commanders
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.179EPA / play+0.138
- 37.1%Success rate48.1%
- -0.196EPA / dropback+0.211
- -0.140EPA / rush+0.027
- 5.8%Explosive rate8.5%
- -4.22CPOE+4.57
- 28.8%Third-down rate45.9%
- 56.8%Red-zone TD rate67.2%
- 1.09Points / drive2.78
- 2.7%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
WAS lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 42.9 points. WAS are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 15/28 | 125 | 1 | 0 |
| Jameis Winston | 1/1 | 16 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Ford | 9 | 47 | 5.2 | 0 |
| D'Onta Foreman | 9 | 44 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Deshaun Watson | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Pierre Strong | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jameis Winston | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amari Cooper | 4 | 10 | 60 | 0 |
| Jordan Akins | 3 | 3 | 22 | 1 |
| D'Onta Foreman | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 1 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| David Njoku | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Elijah Moore | 3 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Jerome Ford | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Pierre Strong | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Daniels | 14/25 | 238 | 1 | 1 |
| Marcus Mariota | 1/3 | -2 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Daniels | 11 | 82 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 6 | 67 | 11.2 | 0 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 7 | 44 | 6.3 | 1 |
| Brian Robinson | 7 | 18 | 2.6 | 2 |
| Marcus Mariota | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Terry McLaurin | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin | 4 | 8 | 112 | 0 |
| Dyami Brown | 2 | 2 | 57 | 1 |
| Austin Ekeler | 2 | 2 | 30 | 0 |
| Luke McCaffrey | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 2 | 8 | 10 | 0 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Brycen Tremayne | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
7.05%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
70.4%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.37
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+2.18
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+8.25