2024 · Week 5

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Deshaun Watson

13·34

Commanders

Washington

QB Jayden Daniels

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 73°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

WAS -3

Total

44

Model margin

+8.3est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

7.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapCommanders
  • -0.179EPA / play+0.138
  • 37.1%Success rate48.1%
  • -0.196EPA / dropback+0.211
  • -0.140EPA / rush+0.027
  • 5.8%Explosive rate8.5%
  • -4.22CPOE+4.57
  • 28.8%Third-down rate45.9%
  • 56.8%Red-zone TD rate67.2%
  • 1.09Points / drive2.78
  • 2.7%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

WAS lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 42.9 points. WAS are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W17CLE @ WAS24–10CLE
2020 · W3WAS @ CLE20–34CLE
2016 · W4CLE @ WAS20–31WAS
2012 · W15WAS @ CLE38–21WAS
2008 · W7CLE @ WAS11–14WAS
2004 · W4WAS @ CLE13–17CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–WAS
CLEQ1 15:00523Turnover on downs0–0
WASQ1 12:513-9Punt0–0
CLEQ1 11:033-7Punt0–0
WASQ1 9:54661Turnover0–0
CLEQ1 7:3634Punt0–0
WASQ1 6:05634Touchdown0–7
CLEQ1 2:4035Punt0–7
WASQ1 1:0130Punt0–7
CLEQ2 15:00615Field goal3–7
WASQ2 13:08764Field goal3–10
CLEQ2 8:4132Punt3–10
WASQ2 6:481171Touchdown3–17
CLEQ2 3:113-4Punt3–17
WASQ2 1:35562Touchdown3–24
CLEQ2 0:36429Punt3–24
WASQ3 15:0012Turnover3–24
CLEQ3 14:52527Field goal6–24
WASQ3 12:12980Touchdown6–31
CLEQ3 7:23329Turnover6–31
WASQ3 5:48638Field goal6–34
CLEQ3 2:351014Punt6–34
WASQ4 12:5033Punt6–34
CLEQ4 11:511053Touchdown13–34
WASQ4 7:02628Punt13–34
CLEQ4 2:28422End of half13–34

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Deshaun Watson15/2812510
Jameis Winston1/11600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jerome Ford9475.20
D'Onta Foreman9444.90
Deshaun Watson3144.70
Pierre Strong122.00
Jameis Winston1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amari Cooper410600
Jordan Akins33221
D'Onta Foreman11160
Jerry Jeudy13160
David Njoku13140
Elijah Moore34110
Jerome Ford3320
Pierre Strong0100

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jayden Daniels14/2523811
Marcus Mariota1/3-200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jayden Daniels11827.50
Austin Ekeler66711.20
Jeremy McNichols7446.31
Brian Robinson7182.62
Marcus Mariota221.00
Terry McLaurin122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terry McLaurin481120
Dyami Brown22571
Austin Ekeler22300
Luke McCaffrey33190
Zach Ertz28100
Olamide Zaccheaus13100
Brycen Tremayne11-20

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +32.8%5.5%7.0%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

7.05%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

70.4%

Expected total

43.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.37
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.18
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+8.25