2004 · Week 4
Final
Cleveland Browns Stadium · outdoors · grass · 58°F · wind 12mph
Closing spread
WAS -2.5
Total
36
Model margin
+3.6est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.121EPA / play-0.147
- 38.9%Success rate38.6%
- -0.102EPA / dropback-0.067
- -0.145EPA / rush-0.251
- 6.6%Explosive rate7.6%
- 31.9%Third-down rate29.2%
- 56.8%Red-zone TD rate50.7%
- 1.03Points / drive1.18
- 2.5%Turnover rate3.8%
- -0.104EPA / play allowed-0.002
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
WAS lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 42.9 points. CLE are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | WAS–CLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–0 |
| WAS | Q1 13:42 | 4 | 11 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CLE | Q1 11:50 | 4 | 15 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| WAS | Q1 9:45 | 12 | 65 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| CLE | Q1 2:50 | 5 | 26 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| WAS | Q1 0:18 | 4 | -1 | Punt | 3–3 |
| CLE | Q2 13:23 | 4 | 37 | Punt | 3–3 |
| WAS | Q2 11:21 | 12 | 78 | Touchdown | 10–3 |
| CLE | Q2 4:48 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 10–3 |
| WAS | Q2 2:30 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 10–3 |
| CLE | Q2 1:39 | 4 | 9 | Punt | 10–3 |
| WAS | Q2 0:34 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 10–3 |
| WAS | Q3 15:00 | 1 | 4 | Turnover | 10–3 |
| CLE | Q3 14:45 | 4 | 31 | Touchdown | 10–10 |
| WAS | Q3 12:30 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 10–10 |
| CLE | Q3 10:17 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 10–10 |
| WAS | Q3 8:53 | 4 | 3 | Punt | 10–10 |
| CLE | Q3 7:47 | 6 | 33 | Punt | 10–10 |
| WAS | Q3 4:22 | 8 | 75 | Field goal | 13–10 |
| CLE | Q4 14:52 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 13–10 |
| WAS | Q4 13:13 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 13–10 |
| CLE | Q4 11:29 | 9 | 77 | Touchdown | 13–17 |
| WAS | Q4 6:51 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 13–17 |
| CLE | Q4 5:40 | 7 | 47 | Turnover on downs | 13–17 |
| WAS | Q4 2:15 | 2 | 12 | Turnover | 13–17 |
| CLE | Q4 1:58 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 13–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Brunell | 17/32 | 192 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 20 | 58 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Mark Brunell | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Ladell Betts | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 14/21 | 195 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lee Suggs | 22 | 82 | 3.7 | 1 |
| William Green | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Andre Davis | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 3 | -5 | -1.7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
1.98%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.8%
Expected total
42.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.69
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+3.70
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+3.65