2004 · Week 4
Final
Cleveland Browns Stadium · outdoors · grass · 58°F · wind 12mph
Closing spread
WAS -2.5
Total
36
Model margin
+3.6est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.121EPA / play-0.147
- 38.9%Success rate38.6%
- -0.102EPA / dropback-0.067
- -0.145EPA / rush-0.251
- 6.6%Explosive rate7.6%
- 31.9%Third-down rate29.2%
- 56.8%Red-zone TD rate50.7%
- 1.03Points / drive1.18
- 2.5%Turnover rate3.8%
- -0.104EPA / play allowed-0.002
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
WAS lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 42.9 points. CLE are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Brunell | 17/32 | 192 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 20 | 58 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Mark Brunell | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Ladell Betts | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 14/21 | 195 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lee Suggs | 22 | 82 | 3.7 | 1 |
| William Green | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Andre Davis | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 3 | -5 | -1.7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
1.98%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.8%
Expected total
42.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.69
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+3.70
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+3.65