2020 · Week 3
Final
FirstEnergy Stadium · outdoors · grass · 73°F · wind 18mph
Closing spread
CLE -7.5
Total
45
Model margin
+1.7est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.051EPA / play+0.091
- 42.1%Success rate46.9%
- -0.063EPA / dropback+0.193
- -0.030EPA / rush-0.034
- 7.7%Explosive rate11.2%
- -1.32CPOE+2.55
- 40.2%Third-down rate45.5%
- 63.6%Red-zone TD rate71.8%
- 1.76Points / drive2.32
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
WAS lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 42.9 points. CLE are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwayne Haskins | 21/37 | 224 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Gibson | 9 | 49 | 5.4 | 1 |
| Antonio Gandy-Golden | 1 | 22 | 22.0 | 0 |
| J.D. McKissic | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Peyton Barber | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Isaiah Wright | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Terry McLaurin | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Dwayne Haskins | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin | 4 | 8 | 83 | 0 |
| Dontrelle Inman | 3 | 6 | 38 | 2 |
| J.D. McKissic | 3 | 4 | 37 | 0 |
| Logan Thomas | 4 | 7 | 31 | 0 |
| Isaiah Wright | 4 | 6 | 24 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 3 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Antonio Gandy-Golden | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 16/23 | 156 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chubb | 19 | 108 | 5.7 | 2 |
| Kareem Hunt | 16 | 46 | 2.9 | 0 |
| JoJo Natson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Baker Mayfield | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 4 | 6 | 59 | 0 |
| Jarvis Landry | 4 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 3 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 2 | 3 | 18 | 1 |
| Harrison Bryant | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| Nick Chubb | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| KhaDarel Hodge | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
2.03%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.5%
Expected total
41.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.72
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+0.43
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+1.66