2020 · Week 3

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Dwayne Haskins

20·34

Browns

Cleveland

QB Baker Mayfield

FirstEnergy Stadium · outdoors · grass · 73°F · wind 18mph

Closing spread

CLE -7.5

Total

45

Model margin

+1.7est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapBrowns
  • -0.051EPA / play+0.091
  • 42.1%Success rate46.9%
  • -0.063EPA / dropback+0.193
  • -0.030EPA / rush-0.034
  • 7.7%Explosive rate11.2%
  • -1.32CPOE+2.55
  • 40.2%Third-down rate45.5%
  • 63.6%Red-zone TD rate71.8%
  • 1.76Points / drive2.32
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

WAS lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 42.9 points. CLE are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W5CLE @ WAS13–34WAS
2022 · W17CLE @ WAS24–10CLE
2016 · W4CLE @ WAS20–31WAS
2012 · W15WAS @ CLE38–21WAS
2008 · W7CLE @ WAS11–14WAS
2004 · W4WAS @ CLE13–17CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–CLE
CLEQ1 15:00633Punt0–0
WASQ1 11:43727Punt0–0
CLEQ1 9:05620Punt0–0
WASQ1 5:08875Touchdown7–0
CLEQ1 1:441242Field goal7–3
WASQ2 10:46844Turnover7–3
CLEQ2 7:24328Touchdown7–10
WASQ2 5:5835Punt7–10
CLEQ2 4:2738Punt7–10
WASQ2 2:4833Turnover7–10
CLEQ2 1:55324Touchdown7–17
WASQ2 0:32221Turnover7–17
WASQ3 15:0030Punt7–17
CLEQ3 12:5839Punt7–17
WASQ3 11:27647Touchdown13–17
CLEQ3 9:053-8Punt13–17
WASQ3 7:281261Touchdown20–17
CLEQ3 2:201175Touchdown20–24
WASQ4 11:1445Turnover20–24
CLEQ4 10:03335Touchdown20–31
WASQ4 8:40617Turnover20–31
CLEQ4 6:301034Field goal20–34
WASQ4 1:1024End of half20–34

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dwayne Haskins21/3722423

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Antonio Gibson9495.41
Antonio Gandy-Golden12222.00
J.D. McKissic5153.00
Peyton Barber362.00
Isaiah Wright166.00
Terry McLaurin133.00
Dwayne Haskins221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terry McLaurin48830
Dontrelle Inman36382
J.D. McKissic34370
Logan Thomas47310
Isaiah Wright46240
Antonio Gibson33110
Antonio Gandy-Golden0200

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield16/2315620

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Nick Chubb191085.72
Kareem Hunt16462.90
JoJo Natson133.00
Baker Mayfield111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Odell Beckham Jr.46590
Jarvis Landry44360
Austin Hooper34250
Kareem Hunt23181
Harrison Bryant1231
Nick Chubb1120
KhaDarel Hodge0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.54.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

2.03%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.5%

Expected total

41.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.72
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.43
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+1.66