Closing spread
IND -1
Total
46.5
Model margin
+1.3est.
GB perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Packers
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.114EPA / play+0.051
- 48.1%Success rate43.8%
- +0.230EPA / dropback+0.134
- -0.087EPA / rush-0.072
- 6.4%Explosive rate8.3%
- +4.76CPOE+4.24
- 50.8%Third-down rate44.1%
- 68.4%Red-zone TD rate66.2%
- 2.14Points / drive1.94
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 54.1 points. GB are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | IND–GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GB | Q1 15:00 | 13 | 47 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| IND | Q1 8:06 | 10 | 55 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| GB | Q1 4:06 | 9 | 50 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| IND | Q2 14:15 | 7 | 29 | Punt | 7–10 |
| GB | Q2 9:40 | 12 | 84 | Touchdown | 7–17 |
| IND | Q2 2:49 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 7–17 |
| GB | Q2 1:54 | 8 | 49 | Missed field goal | 7–17 |
| IND | Q2 0:05 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 7–17 |
| IND | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 32 | Opp touchdown | 7–24 |
| IND | Q3 12:28 | 7 | 41 | Missed field goal | 7–24 |
| GB | Q3 9:01 | 11 | 43 | Field goal | 7–27 |
| IND | Q3 2:37 | 6 | 8 | Punt | 7–27 |
| GB | Q3 1:08 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–27 |
| IND | Q4 14:47 | 4 | 3 | Punt | 7–27 |
| GB | Q4 13:36 | 6 | 14 | Punt | 7–27 |
| IND | Q4 9:41 | 16 | 59 | Opp touchdown | 7–34 |
| IND | Q4 4:27 | 11 | 71 | Touchdown | 14–34 |
| GB | Q4 1:41 | 1 | 9 | End of half | 14–34 |
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 21/42 | 229 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominic Rhodes | 20 | 73 | 3.6 | 2 |
| Chad Simpson | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 21/28 | 186 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Grant | 31 | 105 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.5%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.21
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.28