Closing spread
IND -6
Total
50
Model margin
+3.1est.
IND perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Colts
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.110EPA / play+0.239
- 46.2%Success rate53.8%
- +0.241EPA / dropback+0.412
- -0.085EPA / rush-0.005
- 9.4%Explosive rate11.3%
- 46.7%Third-down rate44.4%
- 66.5%Red-zone TD rate74.8%
- 2.02Points / drive2.73
- 2.6%Turnover rate1.7%
- +0.082EPA / play allowed+0.033
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 54.1 points. IND are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 30/44 | 358 | 4 | 0 |
| Doug Pederson | 4/6 | 34 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 17 | 67 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Tony Fisher | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Nicolas Luchey | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 28/40 | 393 | 5 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 21 | 62 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Dominic Rhodes | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
3.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.5%
Expected total
48.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.59
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.15