Closing spread
IND -6
Total
46
Model margin
+1.5est.
GB perspective
Push chance
2.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Packers
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.123EPA / play-0.010
- 45.8%Success rate40.2%
- +0.249EPA / dropback+0.029
- -0.069EPA / rush-0.076
- 9.0%Explosive rate7.6%
- 46.8%Third-down rate38.8%
- 62.8%Red-zone TD rate53.5%
- 2.04Points / drive1.67
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.9%
- +0.005EPA / play allowed-0.033
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 54.1 points. GB are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | IND–GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GB | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 29 | Punt | 0–2 |
| IND | Q1 12:21 | 1 | -6 | Safety | 0–2 |
| GB | Q1 12:15 | 10 | 30 | Punt | 0–2 |
| IND | Q1 6:05 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–2 |
| GB | Q1 4:39 | 4 | 39 | Field goal | 0–5 |
| IND | Q1 2:33 | 8 | 30 | Punt | 0–5 |
| GB | Q2 14:00 | 8 | 87 | Touchdown | 0–12 |
| IND | Q2 9:45 | 4 | 23 | Punt | 0–12 |
| GB | Q2 7:42 | 8 | 54 | Touchdown | 0–19 |
| IND | Q2 3:59 | 7 | 24 | Turnover | 0–19 |
| GB | Q2 1:46 | 9 | 64 | End of half | 0–19 |
| IND | Q3 15:00 | 11 | 47 | Field goal | 3–19 |
| GB | Q3 8:20 | 10 | 51 | Missed field goal | 3–19 |
| IND | Q3 3:18 | 4 | 11 | Punt | 3–19 |
| GB | Q3 2:04 | 5 | 22 | Punt | 3–19 |
| IND | Q4 14:10 | 9 | 70 | Touchdown | 10–19 |
| GB | Q4 10:35 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 10–19 |
| GB | Q4 8:52 | 3 | 2 | Turnover | 10–19 |
| IND | Q4 7:56 | 13 | 77 | Touchdown | 17–25 |
| GB | Q4 4:32 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 17–26 |
| IND | Q4 4:16 | 7 | 56 | Touchdown | 24–26 |
| GB | Q4 2:39 | 7 | 49 | End of half | 24–26 |
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 25/44 | 294 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 17 | 71 | 4.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E.G. Green | 6 | 10 | 81 | 1 |
| Edgerrin James | 7 | 8 | 66 | 0 |
| Jerome Pathon | 3 | 7 | 45 | 1 |
| Ken Dilger | 4 | 6 | 39 | 0 |
| Terrence Wilkins | 2 | 2 | 30 | 0 |
| Marvin Harrison | 2 | 9 | 28 | 0 |
| Marcus Pollard | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 23/36 | 301 | 2 | 1 |
| Ahman Green | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 24 | 153 | 6.4 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
| De'Mond Parker | 3 | -5 | -1.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Schroeder | 8 | 12 | 155 | 0 |
| Antonio Freeman | 3 | 9 | 37 | 1 |
| Bubba Franks | 2 | 2 | 34 | 0 |
| Ahman Green | 4 | 7 | 27 | 0 |
| Donald Driver | 1 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Tyrone Davis | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| De'Mond Parker | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.78%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.2%
Expected total
46.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.02
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.54