2024 · Week 2

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Anthony Richardson

10·16

Packers

Green Bay

QB Malik Willis

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 85°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

IND -3

Total

41.5

Model margin

+4.3est.

GB perspective

Push chance

6.6%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapPackers
  • -0.045EPA / play+0.081
  • 40.6%Success rate44.8%
  • -0.025EPA / dropback+0.182
  • -0.071EPA / rush-0.030
  • 10.3%Explosive rate11.7%
  • -5.38CPOE+1.37
  • 37.8%Third-down rate37.6%
  • 53.0%Red-zone TD rate64.5%
  • 1.87Points / drive2.38
  • 2.7%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 54.1 points. GB are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2020 · W11GB @ IND31–34IND
2016 · W9IND @ GB31–26IND
2012 · W5GB @ IND27–30IND
2008 · W7IND @ GB14–34GB
2004 · W3GB @ IND31–45IND
2000 · W12IND @ GB24–26GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–GB
GBQ1 15:00857Field goal0–3
INDQ1 10:3033Punt0–3
GBQ1 9:391292Touchdown0–10
INDQ1 3:18330Turnover0–10
GBQ1 2:261068Turnover0–10
INDQ2 12:06614Punt0–10
GBQ2 9:18834Punt0–10
INDQ2 4:06633Punt0–10
GBQ2 1:42311End of half0–10
INDQ3 15:00616Turnover on downs0–10
GBQ3 12:20623Field goal0–13
INDQ3 8:25654Field goal3–13
GBQ3 4:3240Punt3–13
INDQ3 1:56552Missed field goal3–13
GBQ4 14:12644Field goal3–16
INDQ4 10:50330Turnover3–16
GBQ4 10:191049Missed field goal3–16
INDQ4 4:101270Touchdown10–16
GBQ4 1:4735Punt10–16
INDQ4 0:43536Turnover10–16

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Anthony Richardson17/3420413

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Taylor121038.60
Anthony Richardson4379.30
Trey Sermon200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Alec Pierce57561
Jonathan Taylor24320
Adonai Mitchell14300
Mo Alie-Cox11220
Michael Pittman37210
Ashton Dulin12130
Andrew Ogletree12120
Kylen Granson1290
Trey Sermon1170
Tyler Goodson1120

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Malik Willis12/1412210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Jacobs321514.70
Malik Willis6416.80
Jayden Reed23718.50
MarShawn Lloyd6152.50
Emanuel Wilson591.80
Bo Melton284.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Romeo Doubs33620
Dontayvion Wicks34261
Tucker Kraft22160
Jayden Reed2290
Luke Musgrave1160
MarShawn Lloyd1130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -33.6%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

6.61%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.4%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.27
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.11
  • Rest differential+0.16
  • Expected margin+4.25