Closing spread
IND -3
Total
41.5
Model margin
+4.3est.
GB perspective
Push chance
6.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Packers
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.045EPA / play+0.081
- 40.6%Success rate44.8%
- -0.025EPA / dropback+0.182
- -0.071EPA / rush-0.030
- 10.3%Explosive rate11.7%
- -5.38CPOE+1.37
- 37.8%Third-down rate37.6%
- 53.0%Red-zone TD rate64.5%
- 1.87Points / drive2.38
- 2.7%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 54.1 points. GB are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Richardson | 17/34 | 204 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 12 | 103 | 8.6 | 0 |
| Anthony Richardson | 4 | 37 | 9.3 | 0 |
| Trey Sermon | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Pierce | 5 | 7 | 56 | 1 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 2 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Adonai Mitchell | 1 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 3 | 7 | 21 | 0 |
| Ashton Dulin | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Andrew Ogletree | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Kylen Granson | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Trey Sermon | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Tyler Goodson | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik Willis | 12/14 | 122 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 32 | 151 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Malik Willis | 6 | 41 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Jayden Reed | 2 | 37 | 18.5 | 0 |
| MarShawn Lloyd | 6 | 15 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 5 | 9 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Bo Melton | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Romeo Doubs | 3 | 3 | 62 | 0 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 3 | 4 | 26 | 1 |
| Tucker Kraft | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Jayden Reed | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Luke Musgrave | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| MarShawn Lloyd | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
6.61%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.4%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.27
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+0.11
- Rest differential+0.16
- Expected margin+4.25