2020 · Week 11

Final / OT

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

31·34

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Philip Rivers

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

IND -1.5

Total

52

Model margin

-0.3est.

IND perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapColts
  • +0.221EPA / play+0.083
  • 50.7%Success rate46.8%
  • +0.353EPA / dropback+0.181
  • +0.025EPA / rush-0.048
  • 10.1%Explosive rate11.3%
  • +6.90CPOE-0.03
  • 50.7%Third-down rate39.7%
  • 86.4%Red-zone TD rate58.8%
  • 2.98Points / drive2.35
  • 0.9%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 54.1 points. IND are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W2IND @ GB10–16GB
2016 · W9IND @ GB31–26IND
2012 · W5GB @ IND27–30IND
2008 · W7IND @ GB14–34GB
2004 · W3GB @ IND31–45IND
2000 · W12IND @ GB24–26GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–IND
GBQ1 15:00341Turnover0–0
INDQ1 13:43422Turnover0–0
GBQ1 12:27751Touchdown7–0
INDQ1 8:21575Touchdown7–7
GBQ1 5:453-9Punt7–7
INDQ1 3:57622Punt7–7
GBQ1 1:10315Turnover7–7
INDQ1 0:0333Missed field goal7–7
GBQ2 14:09655Touchdown14–7
INDQ2 9:5510Turnover14–7
GBQ2 9:41429Touchdown21–7
INDQ2 7:481275Touchdown21–14
GBQ2 1:52724Touchdown28–14
INDQ2 0:1600End of half28–14
INDQ3 15:001356Field goal28–17
GBQ3 7:4336Punt28–17
INDQ3 5:561155Touchdown28–25
GBQ3 1:5939Punt28–25
INDQ3 0:08750Field goal28–28
GBQ4 11:1200Field goal28–28
INDQ4 11:0258Field goal28–31
GBQ4 8:561053Turnover on downs28–31
INDQ4 3:061247Punt28–31
GBQ4 1:25786Field goal31–31
INDQ4 0:0300End of half31–31
GBOT27Turnover31–31
INDOT38Field goal31–34

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers27/3831131

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Jones10414.11
Aaron Rodgers3134.30
Jamaal Williams5122.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Davante Adams791061
Marquez Valdes-Scantling36550
Robert Tonyan55441
Aaron Jones44300
Equanimeous St. Brown11230
Jace Sternberger33230
Allen Lazard24180
Marcedes Lewis1180
Jamaal Williams1241

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Philip Rivers24/3628831

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Taylor22904.10
Jordan Wilkins4215.30
De'Michael Harris2199.50
Jacoby Brissett294.50
Nyheim Hines620.30
Philip Rivers1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Pittman33661
Zach Pascal33540
T.Y. Hilton36360
Nyheim Hines34310
Trey Burton25251
Jonathan Taylor44240
Mo Alie-Cox23160
Jordan Wilkins11150
Marcus Johnson13140
Jack Doyle1261
De'Michael Harris1110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +1.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

2.11%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.4%

Expected total

47.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.20
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin-0.26