Closing spread
IND -1.5
Total
52
Model margin
-0.3est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.221EPA / play+0.083
- 50.7%Success rate46.8%
- +0.353EPA / dropback+0.181
- +0.025EPA / rush-0.048
- 10.1%Explosive rate11.3%
- +6.90CPOE-0.03
- 50.7%Third-down rate39.7%
- 86.4%Red-zone TD rate58.8%
- 2.98Points / drive2.35
- 0.9%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 54.1 points. IND are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 27/38 | 311 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 10 | 41 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 7 | 9 | 106 | 1 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 3 | 6 | 55 | 0 |
| Robert Tonyan | 5 | 5 | 44 | 1 |
| Aaron Jones | 4 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Equanimeous St. Brown | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 |
| Jace Sternberger | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Allen Lazard | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Rivers | 24/36 | 288 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 22 | 90 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Jordan Wilkins | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 0 |
| De'Michael Harris | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 6 | 2 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Philip Rivers | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 3 | 3 | 66 | 1 |
| Zach Pascal | 3 | 3 | 54 | 0 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 3 | 6 | 36 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 3 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Trey Burton | 2 | 5 | 25 | 1 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 4 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Jordan Wilkins | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Marcus Johnson | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Jack Doyle | 1 | 2 | 6 | 1 |
| De'Michael Harris | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.4%
Expected total
47.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.20
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin-0.26