2012 · Week 5

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

27·30

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Andrew Luck

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

GB -6.5

Total

49.5

Model margin

+1.0est.

IND perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapColts
  • +0.102EPA / play+0.035
  • 46.3%Success rate45.1%
  • +0.222EPA / dropback+0.094
  • -0.111EPA / rush-0.077
  • 8.0%Explosive rate9.1%
  • +5.43CPOE-4.46
  • 42.8%Third-down rate42.3%
  • 69.8%Red-zone TD rate59.8%
  • 2.11Points / drive1.62
  • 1.4%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 54.1 points. IND are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W2IND @ GB10–16GB
2020 · W11GB @ IND31–34IND
2016 · W9IND @ GB31–26IND
2008 · W7IND @ GB14–34GB
2004 · W3GB @ IND31–45IND
2000 · W12IND @ GB24–26GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–IND
INDQ1 15:00629Punt0–0
GBQ1 12:26624Punt0–0
INDQ1 9:08940Turnover on downs0–0
GBQ1 4:40751Touchdown7–0
INDQ1 2:0739Punt7–0
GBQ1 0:11850Touchdown14–0
INDQ2 12:2565Punt14–0
GBQ2 10:2031Punt14–0
GBQ2 9:3800Punt14–0
INDQ2 9:30129Field goal14–0
INDQ2 9:00634Field goal14–3
GBQ2 6:2100Touchdown14–3
GBQ2 6:15540Touchdown21–3
INDQ2 4:211045Missed field goal21–3
GBQ2 1:1736Punt21–3
INDQ2 0:56617Punt21–3
GBQ2 0:1617End of half21–3
GBQ3 15:00418Turnover21–3
INDQ3 13:19539Touchdown21–10
GBQ3 11:063-3Punt21–10
INDQ3 10:08738Field goal21–13
GBQ3 7:42834Missed field goal21–13
INDQ3 3:17728Touchdown21–19
GBQ3 0:184-6Punt21–19
INDQ4 14:2646Turnover21–19
GBQ4 13:08422Punt21–19
INDQ4 11:27760Field goal21–22
GBQ4 8:04416Punt21–22
INDQ4 5:4731Punt21–22
GBQ4 4:44249Touchdown27–22
INDQ4 4:301385Touchdown27–30
GBQ4 0:35347Missed field goal27–30
INDQ4 0:0300End of half27–30

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers20/3223531

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alex Green10636.30
Aaron Rodgers55711.40
Cedric Benson7202.90

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Randall Cobb44821
James Jones47462
Jordy Nelson25290
Cedric Benson22210
D.J. Williams24200
Donald Driver12140
Jermichael Finley35110
Tom Crabtree1160

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andrew Luck31/5536221

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Donald Brown17844.90
Andrew Luck6244.01
Vick Ballard6111.80
T.Y. Hilton100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Reggie Wayne13202121
Coby Fleener59410
Dwayne Allen45381
T.Y. Hilton39370
Donnie Avery38220
Donald Brown2280
Vick Ballard1140
Nathan Palmer0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -6.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.6%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

2.83%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.9%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.01
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+1.04