Closing spread
GB -6.5
Total
49.5
Model margin
+1.0est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.102EPA / play+0.035
- 46.3%Success rate45.1%
- +0.222EPA / dropback+0.094
- -0.111EPA / rush-0.077
- 8.0%Explosive rate9.1%
- +5.43CPOE-4.46
- 42.8%Third-down rate42.3%
- 69.8%Red-zone TD rate59.8%
- 2.11Points / drive1.62
- 1.4%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 54.1 points. IND are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 20/32 | 235 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Green | 10 | 63 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 5 | 57 | 11.4 | 0 |
| Cedric Benson | 7 | 20 | 2.9 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randall Cobb | 4 | 4 | 82 | 1 |
| James Jones | 4 | 7 | 46 | 2 |
| Jordy Nelson | 2 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Cedric Benson | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| D.J. Williams | 2 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Donald Driver | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Jermichael Finley | 3 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| Tom Crabtree | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 31/55 | 362 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Brown | 17 | 84 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Andrew Luck | 6 | 24 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Vick Ballard | 6 | 11 | 1.8 | 0 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Wayne | 13 | 20 | 212 | 1 |
| Coby Fleener | 5 | 9 | 41 | 0 |
| Dwayne Allen | 4 | 5 | 38 | 1 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 3 | 9 | 37 | 0 |
| Donnie Avery | 3 | 8 | 22 | 0 |
| Donald Brown | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Vick Ballard | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Nathan Palmer | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.83%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.9%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.01
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+1.04