2016 · Week 9

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Andrew Luck

31·26

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 68°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

GB -7.5

Total

52

Model margin

+3.0est.

GB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapPackers
  • +0.045EPA / play+0.127
  • 45.9%Success rate45.9%
  • +0.127EPA / dropback+0.243
  • -0.117EPA / rush-0.138
  • 8.4%Explosive rate8.9%
  • +1.05CPOE+2.71
  • 42.8%Third-down rate47.4%
  • 72.9%Red-zone TD rate63.8%
  • 2.10Points / drive2.39
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 54.1 points. GB are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W2IND @ GB10–16GB
2020 · W11GB @ IND31–34IND
2012 · W5GB @ IND27–30IND
2008 · W7IND @ GB14–34GB
2004 · W3GB @ IND31–45IND
2000 · W12IND @ GB24–26GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–GB
INDQ1 15:0000Touchdown7–0
GBQ1 14:47853Field goal7–3
INDQ1 10:4635Turnover7–3
GBQ1 9:083-1Missed field goal7–3
INDQ1 7:35762Touchdown14–3
GBQ1 4:2838Punt14–3
INDQ1 2:47311Turnover14–3
GBQ1 1:25447Touchdown14–10
INDQ2 15:00735Field goal17–10
GBQ2 12:0530Punt17–10
INDQ2 11:36614Punt17–10
GBQ2 8:39632Punt17–10
INDQ2 5:441691Touchdown24–10
GBQ2 0:1100End of half24–10
GBQ3 15:001347Turnover24–10
INDQ3 8:4337Punt24–10
GBQ3 7:24965Field goal24–13
INDQ3 1:4643Punt24–13
GBQ4 14:21515Punt24–13
INDQ4 12:28766Touchdown31–13
GBQ4 9:35660Touchdown31–19
INDQ4 7:4039Punt31–19
GBQ4 5:28780Touchdown31–26
INDQ4 3:29655End of half31–26

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andrew Luck23/3628112

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore19603.22
Andrew Luck7152.10
Robert Turbin2105.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
T.Y. Hilton68820
Jack Doyle59610
Donte Moncrief36551
Phillip Dorsett24280
Dwayne Allen12150
Robert Turbin23130
Frank Gore22110
Josh Ferguson1190
Erik Swoope1170

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers26/4329731

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ty Montgomery7537.60
Aaron Rodgers6437.20
Don Jackson4164.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jordy Nelson713941
Richard Rodgers610640
Davante Adams48411
Ty Montgomery33380
Jeff Janis12250
Justin Perillo22180
Randall Cobb22141
Geronimo Allison0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.53.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

2.11%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.1%

Expected total

45.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.26
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.00