Closing spread
GB -7.5
Total
52
Model margin
+3.0est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.045EPA / play+0.127
- 45.9%Success rate45.9%
- +0.127EPA / dropback+0.243
- -0.117EPA / rush-0.138
- 8.4%Explosive rate8.9%
- +1.05CPOE+2.71
- 42.8%Third-down rate47.4%
- 72.9%Red-zone TD rate63.8%
- 2.10Points / drive2.39
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 54.1 points. GB are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 23/36 | 281 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 19 | 60 | 3.2 | 2 |
| Andrew Luck | 7 | 15 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Y. Hilton | 6 | 8 | 82 | 0 |
| Jack Doyle | 5 | 9 | 61 | 0 |
| Donte Moncrief | 3 | 6 | 55 | 1 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 2 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Dwayne Allen | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Josh Ferguson | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Erik Swoope | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 26/43 | 297 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ty Montgomery | 7 | 53 | 7.6 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 6 | 43 | 7.2 | 0 |
| Don Jackson | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordy Nelson | 7 | 13 | 94 | 1 |
| Richard Rodgers | 6 | 10 | 64 | 0 |
| Davante Adams | 4 | 8 | 41 | 1 |
| Ty Montgomery | 3 | 3 | 38 | 0 |
| Jeff Janis | 1 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Justin Perillo | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 2 | 2 | 14 | 1 |
| Geronimo Allison | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.1%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.26
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.00