Closing spread
PIT -3
Total
41
Model margin
+4.0est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.093EPA / play-0.031
- 47.3%Success rate42.9%
- +0.129EPA / dropback+0.022
- +0.050EPA / rush-0.103
- 10.1%Explosive rate7.8%
- +0.84CPOE+0.13
- 43.7%Third-down rate41.3%
- 51.8%Red-zone TD rate54.8%
- 2.09Points / drive1.61
- 1.2%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 5–2 since 1999
PIT have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. PIT are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 19/32 | 199 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Jacobs | 18 | 47 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Derrick Ward | 13 | 37 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 4 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 13/29 | 189 | 1 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mewelde Moore | 19 | 84 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Gary Russell | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.6%
Expected total
41.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.46
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.95