Closing spread
PIT -3
Total
41
Model margin
+4.0est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.093EPA / play-0.031
- 47.3%Success rate42.9%
- +0.129EPA / dropback+0.022
- +0.050EPA / rush-0.103
- 10.1%Explosive rate7.8%
- +0.84CPOE+0.13
- 43.7%Third-down rate41.3%
- 51.8%Red-zone TD rate54.8%
- 2.09Points / drive1.61
- 1.2%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 5–2 since 1999
PIT have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. PIT are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NYG–PIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYG | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PIT | Q1 12:42 | 4 | 60 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| NYG | Q1 11:15 | 10 | 57 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| PIT | Q1 4:39 | 3 | 15 | Turnover | 3–7 |
| NYG | Q1 2:53 | 12 | 55 | Turnover on downs | 3–7 |
| PIT | Q2 13:06 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 3–7 |
| NYG | Q2 11:27 | 3 | 2 | Field goal | 6–7 |
| PIT | Q2 10:30 | 6 | 13 | Turnover | 6–7 |
| NYG | Q2 7:54 | 6 | 22 | Field goal | 9–7 |
| PIT | Q2 3:31 | 7 | 31 | Punt | 9–7 |
| NYG | Q2 0:07 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 9–7 |
| PIT | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 5 | Punt | 9–7 |
| NYG | Q3 12:12 | 4 | 15 | Punt | 9–13 |
| PIT | Q3 10:10 | 1 | 65 | Touchdown | 9–14 |
| NYG | Q3 10:00 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 9–14 |
| PIT | Q3 8:52 | 12 | 47 | Punt | 9–14 |
| NYG | Q3 2:42 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 9–14 |
| PIT | Q3 1:43 | 6 | 20 | Turnover | 9–14 |
| NYG | Q4 14:00 | 12 | 64 | Field goal | 12–14 |
| PIT | Q4 8:18 | 4 | -12 | Safety | 14–14 |
| NYG | Q4 6:48 | 7 | 53 | Touchdown | 21–14 |
| PIT | Q4 3:07 | 4 | 6 | Turnover on downs | 21–14 |
| NYG | Q4 2:08 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 21–14 |
| PIT | Q4 1:48 | 4 | -5 | Turnover | 21–14 |
| NYG | Q4 1:24 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 21–14 |
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 19/32 | 199 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Jacobs | 18 | 47 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Derrick Ward | 13 | 37 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 4 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 13/29 | 189 | 1 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mewelde Moore | 19 | 84 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Gary Russell | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.6%
Expected total
41.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.46
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.95