2012 · Week 9

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

24·20

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 44°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

NYG -3.5

Total

48

Model margin

+1.9est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapGiants
  • -0.007EPA / play+0.086
  • 42.0%Success rate46.8%
  • +0.094EPA / dropback+0.142
  • -0.168EPA / rush-0.000
  • 8.6%Explosive rate10.8%
  • +0.59CPOE+0.81
  • 41.9%Third-down rate41.8%
  • 61.7%Red-zone TD rate57.2%
  • 1.66Points / drive2.27
  • 2.8%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 5–2 since 1999

PIT have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. NYG are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W8NYG @ PIT18–26PIT
2020 · W1PIT @ NYG26–16PIT
2016 · W13NYG @ PIT14–24PIT
2008 · W8NYG @ PIT21–14NYG
2004 · W15PIT @ NYG33–30PIT
2000 · W15PIT @ NYG10–30NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–NYG
NYGQ1 15:00526Punt0–0
PITQ1 13:01716Punt0–0
NYGQ1 9:2435Punt0–0
PITQ1 8:24620Punt0–0
NYGQ1 4:34325Turnover0–0
PITQ1 3:031158Touchdown7–0
NYGQ2 12:091030Touchdown7–7
PITQ2 7:01416Opp touchdown7–14
PITQ2 5:11816Punt7–14
NYGQ2 1:10511Missed field goal7–14
PITQ2 0:31247Field goal10–14
PITQ3 15:003-1Punt10–14
NYGQ3 13:02861Field goal10–17
PITQ3 8:2539Turnover10–17
NYGQ3 7:09833Field goal10–20
PITQ3 1:32575Touchdown17–20
NYGQ4 14:053-12Punt17–20
PITQ4 12:3648Turnover on downs17–20
NYGQ4 10:3033Punt17–20
PITQ4 8:551046Touchdown24–20
NYGQ4 4:0230Punt24–20
PITQ4 2:52445End of half24–20

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger21/3021621

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Isaac Redman261475.71
Baron Batch273.50
Chris Rainey144.00
Will Johnson122.00
Ben Roethlisberger4-1-0.30
Shaun Suisham1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Wallace35661
Jerricho Cotchery44500
Heath Miller45480
Emmanuel Sanders22201
Antonio Brown23190
David Paulson1270
Will Johnson1350
Isaac Redman2240
Chris Rainey23-30

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning10/2412501

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ahmad Bradshaw15483.20
Andre Brown7202.91

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Victor Cruz511670
Martellus Bennett34400
Hakeem Nicks14100
Domenik Hixon0100
Rueben Randle0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

2.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.2%

Expected total

45.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.58
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.91