Closing spread
NYG -3.5
Total
48
Model margin
+1.9est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Giants
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.007EPA / play+0.086
- 42.0%Success rate46.8%
- +0.094EPA / dropback+0.142
- -0.168EPA / rush-0.000
- 8.6%Explosive rate10.8%
- +0.59CPOE+0.81
- 41.9%Third-down rate41.8%
- 61.7%Red-zone TD rate57.2%
- 1.66Points / drive2.27
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 5–2 since 1999
PIT have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. NYG are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 21/30 | 216 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaac Redman | 26 | 147 | 5.7 | 1 |
| Baron Batch | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Chris Rainey | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Will Johnson | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 4 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
| Shaun Suisham | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Wallace | 3 | 5 | 66 | 1 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 4 | 4 | 50 | 0 |
| Heath Miller | 4 | 5 | 48 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 2 | 2 | 20 | 1 |
| Antonio Brown | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| David Paulson | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Will Johnson | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Isaac Redman | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Chris Rainey | 2 | 3 | -3 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 10/24 | 125 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 15 | 48 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Andre Brown | 7 | 20 | 2.9 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Cruz | 5 | 11 | 67 | 0 |
| Martellus Bennett | 3 | 4 | 40 | 0 |
| Hakeem Nicks | 1 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Domenik Hixon | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Rueben Randle | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
2.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.2%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.58
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.91