Closing spread
PIT -6
Total
44
Model margin
-0.2est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
2.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Giants
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.035EPA / play-0.057
- 44.0%Success rate42.1%
- +0.118EPA / dropback-0.051
- -0.134EPA / rush-0.067
- 7.4%Explosive rate7.5%
- -0.90CPOE-2.04
- 42.1%Third-down rate35.1%
- 70.3%Red-zone TD rate51.7%
- 2.12Points / drive1.57
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 5–2 since 1999
PIT have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. NYG are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 21/32 | 229 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benny Snell | 19 | 113 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| James Conner | 6 | 9 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Chase Claypool | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Jaylen Samuels | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 6 | 6 | 69 | 2 |
| Diontae Johnson | 6 | 10 | 57 | 0 |
| Chase Claypool | 2 | 2 | 39 | 0 |
| James Washington | 2 | 3 | 34 | 1 |
| Eric Ebron | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| James Conner | 2 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Vance McDonald | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Jaylen Samuels | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Benny Snell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 26/41 | 279 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 4 | 22 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 15 | 6 | 0.4 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darius Slayton | 6 | 9 | 102 | 2 |
| Saquon Barkley | 6 | 9 | 60 | 0 |
| Sterling Shepard | 6 | 6 | 47 | 0 |
| C.J. Board | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Kaden Smith | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Wayne Gallman | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Levine Toilolo | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Evan Engram | 2 | 7 | 9 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Damion Ratley | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
2.94%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.5%
Expected total
41.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.93
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.22