2020 · Week 1

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

26·16

Giants

New York

QB Daniel Jones

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 71°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

PIT -6

Total

44

Model margin

-0.2est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

2.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapGiants
  • +0.035EPA / play-0.057
  • 44.0%Success rate42.1%
  • +0.118EPA / dropback-0.051
  • -0.134EPA / rush-0.067
  • 7.4%Explosive rate7.5%
  • -0.90CPOE-2.04
  • 42.1%Third-down rate35.1%
  • 70.3%Red-zone TD rate51.7%
  • 2.12Points / drive1.57
  • 1.5%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 5–2 since 1999

PIT have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. NYG are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W8NYG @ PIT18–26PIT
2016 · W13NYG @ PIT14–24PIT
2012 · W9PIT @ NYG24–20PIT
2008 · W8NYG @ PIT21–14NYG
2004 · W15PIT @ NYG33–30PIT
2000 · W15PIT @ NYG10–30NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–NYG
NYGQ1 15:00735Punt0–0
NYGQ1 11:2431Field goal0–3
PITQ1 10:3435Punt0–3
NYGQ1 8:343-3Punt0–3
PITQ1 7:001259Field goal3–3
NYGQ1 0:49763Touchdown3–10
PITQ2 13:4531Punt3–10
NYGQ2 12:4010Turnover3–10
PITQ2 12:35640Touchdown9–10
NYGQ2 9:01643Punt9–10
PITQ2 5:103-4Punt9–10
NYGQ2 3:2432Punt9–10
PITQ2 1:32878Touchdown16–10
NYGQ2 0:0700End of half16–10
PITQ3 15:00522Punt16–10
NYGQ3 12:071987Turnover16–10
PITQ3 3:17858Field goal19–10
NYGQ4 14:193-6Punt19–10
PITQ4 12:231175Touchdown26–10
NYGQ4 5:231470Touchdown26–16
PITQ4 1:52417End of half26–16

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger21/3222930

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Benny Snell191135.90
Ben Roethlisberger393.00
James Conner691.50
Chase Claypool188.00
Jaylen Samuels122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
JuJu Smith-Schuster66692
Diontae Johnson610570
Chase Claypool22390
James Washington23341
Eric Ebron12180
James Conner2480
Vance McDonald1230
Jaylen Samuels1110
Benny Snell0100

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daniel Jones26/4127922

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Daniel Jones4225.50
Saquon Barkley1560.40
Dion Lewis111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Darius Slayton691022
Saquon Barkley69600
Sterling Shepard66470
C.J. Board22170
Kaden Smith22170
Wayne Gallman11140
Levine Toilolo11130
Evan Engram2790
Dion Lewis0100
Damion Ratley0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -62.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

2.94%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.5%

Expected total

41.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.93
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.22