Closing spread
PIT -10
Total
36.5
Model margin
-2.8est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
3.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Giants
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.044EPA / play-0.028
- 44.9%Success rate43.5%
- +0.136EPA / dropback-0.017
- -0.028EPA / rush-0.044
- 10.4%Explosive rate8.2%
- 44.9%Third-down rate29.5%
- 56.0%Red-zone TD rate53.1%
- 1.83Points / drive1.65
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.2%
- -0.133EPA / play allowed+0.008
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 5–2 since 1999
PIT have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. NYG are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 18/28 | 316 | 1 | 2 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 1/1 | 10 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Bettis | 36 | 140 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 16/23 | 182 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 18 | 76 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Eli Manning | 2 | 18 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Ron Dayne | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
3.04%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
41.6%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.00
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-2.34
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.78