2024 · Week 8

Final

Giants

New York

QB Daniel Jones

18·26

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Russell Wilson

Acrisure Stadium · outdoors · grass · 54°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

PIT -6

Total

37.5

Model margin

+2.8est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

3.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapSteelers
  • -0.088EPA / play-0.027
  • 41.1%Success rate40.7%
  • -0.073EPA / dropback+0.051
  • -0.116EPA / rush-0.124
  • 6.8%Explosive rate9.8%
  • -1.45CPOE+3.65
  • 36.0%Third-down rate39.7%
  • 47.5%Red-zone TD rate55.4%
  • 1.28Points / drive1.86
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 5–2 since 1999

PIT have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. PIT are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2020 · W1PIT @ NYG26–16PIT
2016 · W13NYG @ PIT14–24PIT
2012 · W9PIT @ NYG24–20PIT
2008 · W8NYG @ PIT21–14NYG
2004 · W15PIT @ NYG33–30PIT
2000 · W15PIT @ NYG10–30NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–PIT
PITQ1 15:001072Field goal0–3
NYGQ1 10:19764Field goal3–3
PITQ1 5:19663Field goal3–6
NYGQ1 3:051355Field goal6–6
PITQ2 12:391161Field goal6–9
NYGQ2 8:1237Punt6–9
PITQ2 6:45825Punt6–9
NYGQ2 1:53757Field goal9–9
PITQ2 0:21217End of half9–9
NYGQ3 15:00827Punt9–9
PITQ3 10:02310Punt9–9
NYGQ3 7:3543Opp touchdown9–16
NYGQ3 4:3839Punt9–16
PITQ3 2:281095Touchdown9–23
NYGQ4 13:16665Touchdown15–23
PITQ4 11:07661Field goal15–26
NYGQ4 7:15740Field goal18–26
PITQ4 5:0624Turnover18–26
NYGQ4 4:3459Turnover18–26
PITQ4 2:59519Punt18–26
NYGQ4 1:53858Turnover18–26
PITQ4 0:3400End of half18–26

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daniel Jones24/3826401

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tyrone Tracy Jr.201457.31
Devin Singletary2115.50
Daniel Jones310.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Darius Slayton471080
Malik Nabers713710
Theo Johnson34350
Wan'Dale Robinson55300
Devin Singletary23120
Tyrone Tracy Jr.2350
Eric Gray1130
Chris Manhertz0100

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson20/2827810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Najee Harris191146.00
Jaylen Warren9465.10
Russell Wilson372.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
George Pickens45740
Van Jefferson45620
Calvin Austin III34541
Darnell Washington11290
Pat Freiermuth22190
Najee Harris34170
Jaylen Warren23130
MyCole Pruitt11100
Scott Miller0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +63.9%2.6%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

3.11%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.5%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.05
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.76