Closing spread
PIT -6
Total
37.5
Model margin
+2.8est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.088EPA / play-0.027
- 41.1%Success rate40.7%
- -0.073EPA / dropback+0.051
- -0.116EPA / rush-0.124
- 6.8%Explosive rate9.8%
- -1.45CPOE+3.65
- 36.0%Third-down rate39.7%
- 47.5%Red-zone TD rate55.4%
- 1.28Points / drive1.86
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 5–2 since 1999
PIT have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. PIT are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 24/38 | 264 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | 20 | 145 | 7.3 | 1 |
| Devin Singletary | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Daniel Jones | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darius Slayton | 4 | 7 | 108 | 0 |
| Malik Nabers | 7 | 13 | 71 | 0 |
| Theo Johnson | 3 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 5 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Eric Gray | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Chris Manhertz | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 20/28 | 278 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Najee Harris | 19 | 114 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Jaylen Warren | 9 | 46 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Pickens | 4 | 5 | 74 | 0 |
| Van Jefferson | 4 | 5 | 62 | 0 |
| Calvin Austin III | 3 | 4 | 54 | 1 |
| Darnell Washington | 1 | 1 | 29 | 0 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Najee Harris | 3 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Jaylen Warren | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| MyCole Pruitt | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Scott Miller | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
3.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.5%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.05
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.76