Closing spread
PIT -7
Total
49.5
Model margin
+3.0est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.074EPA / play+0.085
- 40.8%Success rate46.0%
- -0.035EPA / dropback+0.164
- -0.142EPA / rush-0.043
- 7.3%Explosive rate10.8%
- -1.63CPOE+1.74
- 36.0%Third-down rate41.9%
- 61.2%Red-zone TD rate64.0%
- 1.46Points / drive2.24
- 2.4%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 5–2 since 1999
PIT have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. PIT are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 24/39 | 195 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Perkins | 7 | 38 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Rashad Jennings | 6 | 19 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 10 | 16 | 100 | 0 |
| Rashad Jennings | 6 | 6 | 34 | 1 |
| Will Tye | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Sterling Shepard | 4 | 8 | 21 | 1 |
| Jerell Adams | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Roger Lewis | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Larry Donnell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 24/36 | 289 | 2 | 1 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le'Veon Bell | 29 | 118 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Landry Jones | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladarius Green | 6 | 11 | 110 | 1 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 6 | 7 | 64 | 0 |
| Antonio Brown | 6 | 7 | 54 | 1 |
| Jesse James | 3 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Eli Rogers | 1 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Cobi Hamilton | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
4.79%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.1%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.02
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+3.00