2016 · Week 13

Final

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

14·24

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 43°F · wind 71mph

Closing spread

PIT -7

Total

49.5

Model margin

+3.0est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

4.8%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapSteelers
  • -0.074EPA / play+0.085
  • 40.8%Success rate46.0%
  • -0.035EPA / dropback+0.164
  • -0.142EPA / rush-0.043
  • 7.3%Explosive rate10.8%
  • -1.63CPOE+1.74
  • 36.0%Third-down rate41.9%
  • 61.2%Red-zone TD rate64.0%
  • 1.46Points / drive2.24
  • 2.4%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 5–2 since 1999

PIT have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. PIT are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W8NYG @ PIT18–26PIT
2020 · W1PIT @ NYG26–16PIT
2012 · W9PIT @ NYG24–20PIT
2008 · W8NYG @ PIT21–14NYG
2004 · W15PIT @ NYG33–30PIT
2000 · W15PIT @ NYG10–30NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–PIT
PITQ1 15:00830Punt0–0
NYGQ1 11:02628Punt0–0
PITQ1 7:31746Punt0–0
NYGQ1 4:0040Safety0–2
PITQ1 3:04638Field goal0–5
NYGQ1 0:041257Turnover0–5
PITQ2 8:21340Touchdown0–11
NYGQ2 7:1037Punt0–11
PITQ2 6:161574Field goal0–14
NYGQ2 0:2400End of half0–14
NYGQ3 15:003-5Punt0–14
PITQ3 13:4143Punt0–14
NYGQ3 11:46757Turnover on downs0–14
PITQ3 8:54414Turnover0–14
NYGQ3 7:12217Touchdown7–14
PITQ3 6:30788Touchdown7–21
NYGQ3 3:0933Punt7–21
PITQ3 1:382-10Turnover7–21
NYGQ3 0:44823Turnover7–21
PITQ4 11:23519Punt7–21
NYGQ4 8:22518Turnover on downs7–21
PITQ4 6:561048Field goal7–24
NYGQ4 1:39630Touchdown14–24
PITQ4 0:2600End of half14–24

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning24/3919522

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Paul Perkins7385.40
Rashad Jennings6193.20
Eli Manning1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Odell Beckham Jr.10161000
Rashad Jennings66341
Will Tye24220
Sterling Shepard48211
Jerell Adams13100
Roger Lewis1180
Larry Donnell0100

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger24/3628921
Le'Veon Bell0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Le'Veon Bell291184.10
Landry Jones1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ladarius Green6111101
Le'Veon Bell67640
Antonio Brown67541
Jesse James34320
Eli Rogers13180
Cobi Hamilton23110
David Johnson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

4.79%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.1%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.02
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+3.00