Closing spread
NYG -3.5
Total
35.5
Model margin
+3.4est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Giants
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.044EPA / play+0.016
- 38.6%Success rate40.1%
- -0.014EPA / dropback+0.137
- -0.076EPA / rush-0.130
- 8.9%Explosive rate8.7%
- 37.4%Third-down rate39.9%
- 49.8%Red-zone TD rate67.6%
- 1.37Points / drive1.73
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.1%
- -0.119EPA / play allowed-0.065
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 5–2 since 1999
PIT have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. NYG are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kordell Stewart | 20/34 | 224 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Bettis | 17 | 39 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Kordell Stewart | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bobby Shaw | 6 | 11 | 88 | 1 |
| Hines Ward | 6 | 7 | 64 | 0 |
| Troy Edwards | 1 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Will Blackwell | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Jerome Bettis | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Courtney Hawkins | 2 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Mark Bruener | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Richard Huntley | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 24/35 | 333 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amani Toomer | 1 | 28 | 28.0 | 0 |
| Tiki Barber | 12 | 22 | 1.8 | 1 |
| Ron Dayne | 11 | 20 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Jason Garrett | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amani Toomer | 9 | 13 | 136 | 1 |
| Ike Hilliard | 5 | 7 | 90 | 1 |
| Tiki Barber | 6 | 7 | 75 | 0 |
| Pete Mitchell | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Joe Jurevicius | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Greg Comella | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.3%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.88
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.44