Closing spread
SD -3
Total
45.5
Model margin
+4.1est.
NO perspective
Push chance
6.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Saints
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
NO lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 57 points. NO are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–NO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Q1 15:00 | 15 | 74 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| LAC | Q1 6:34 | 6 | 51 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| NO | Q1 3:30 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 3–3 |
| LAC | Q1 1:54 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–3 |
| NO | Q1 0:08 | 10 | 84 | Touchdown | 3–9 |
| LAC | Q2 11:02 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 3–9 |
| NO | Q2 10:52 | 6 | 25 | Touchdown | 3–16 |
| LAC | Q2 8:52 | 7 | 71 | Touchdown | 10–16 |
| NO | Q2 5:35 | 4 | 61 | Touchdown | 10–23 |
| LAC | Q2 3:29 | 5 | 64 | Touchdown | 17–23 |
| NO | Q2 1:08 | 6 | 31 | Punt | 17–23 |
| LAC | Q2 0:05 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 17–23 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 17–23 |
| NO | Q3 13:58 | 8 | 72 | Touchdown | 17–30 |
| LAC | Q3 10:15 | 13 | 66 | Field goal | 20–30 |
| NO | Q3 3:25 | 9 | 48 | Touchdown | 20–37 |
| LAC | Q4 14:49 | 12 | 73 | Field goal | 23–37 |
| NO | Q4 9:35 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 23–37 |
| LAC | Q4 9:32 | 5 | 57 | Touchdown | 30–37 |
| NO | Q4 7:21 | 7 | 25 | Punt | 30–37 |
| LAC | Q4 4:08 | 10 | 61 | Turnover | 30–37 |
| NO | Q4 1:09 | 4 | -18 | Safety | 32–37 |
| LAC | Q4 0:08 | 1 | 0 | End of half | 32–37 |
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 30/41 | 339 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deuce McAllister | 18 | 55 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Pierre Thomas | 3 | 28 | 9.3 | 0 |
| Aaron Stecker | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 1 | -26 | -26.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
6.64%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.1%
Expected total
46.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.63
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.12
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.