Closing spread
SD -3
Total
45.5
Model margin
+4.1est.
NO perspective
Push chance
6.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Saints
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
NO lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 57 points. NO are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 30/41 | 339 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deuce McAllister | 18 | 55 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Pierre Thomas | 3 | 28 | 9.3 | 0 |
| Aaron Stecker | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 1 | -26 | -26.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
6.64%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.1%
Expected total
46.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.63
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.12
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.