Closing spread
NO -3.5
Total
53
Model margin
+3.0est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Chargers
- OutNate KaedingKright Groin· DNP
- OutShareece WrightCBFoot· DNP
- ProbableTyronne GreenGKnee· Full
Saints
- OutDavid HawthorneLBHamstring· DNP
- OutLance MooreWRHamstring· DNP
- OutTravaris CadetRBShoulder· DNP
- OutTurk McBrideDEAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableJoe MorganWRKnee· Limited
- QuestionableJonathan CasillasLBNeck· Limited
- QuestionableRoman HarperSHip· Limited
- DNPBrodrick BunkleyDTIllness
Win probability
- Saints
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
NO lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 57 points. NO are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–NO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NO | Q1 13:23 | 6 | 10 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 10:22 | 7 | 91 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| NO | Q1 6:56 | 9 | 80 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| LAC | Q1 2:58 | 5 | 35 | Punt | 7–7 |
| NO | Q1 0:26 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 7–7 |
| LAC | Q2 14:06 | 8 | 43 | Field goal | 10–7 |
| NO | Q2 9:58 | 7 | 80 | Touchdown | 10–14 |
| LAC | Q2 7:19 | 8 | 30 | Missed field goal | 10–14 |
| NO | Q2 2:52 | 3 | -9 | Punt | 10–14 |
| LAC | Q2 1:48 | 4 | 86 | Touchdown | 17–14 |
| NO | Q2 0:36 | 5 | 23 | Turnover on downs | 17–14 |
| NO | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 5 | Turnover | 17–14 |
| LAC | Q3 13:46 | 3 | 25 | Touchdown | 24–14 |
| NO | Q3 12:27 | 7 | 23 | Punt | 24–14 |
| LAC | Q3 10:13 | 8 | 27 | Punt | 24–14 |
| NO | Q3 4:39 | 10 | 72 | Touchdown | 24–21 |
| LAC | Q3 0:11 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 24–21 |
| NO | Q4 14:39 | 10 | 95 | Touchdown | 24–28 |
| LAC | Q4 8:50 | 6 | 27 | Turnover | 24–28 |
| NO | Q4 5:45 | 6 | 21 | Field goal | 24–31 |
| LAC | Q4 2:56 | 14 | 58 | Turnover | 24–31 |
| NO | Q4 0:14 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 24–31 |
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 29/45 | 370 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Thomas | 9 | 30 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 5 | 9 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marques Colston | 9 | 18 | 131 | 3 |
| Devery Henderson | 8 | 10 | 123 | 1 |
| Greg Camarillo | 4 | 5 | 44 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 2 | 2 | 40 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 5 | 7 | 28 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Joseph Morgan | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.0%
Expected total
46.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.47
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.96
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.