Closing spread
NO -3.5
Total
53
Model margin
+3.0est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
NO lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 57 points. NO are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 29/45 | 370 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Thomas | 9 | 30 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 5 | 9 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marques Colston | 9 | 18 | 131 | 3 |
| Devery Henderson | 8 | 10 | 123 | 1 |
| Greg Camarillo | 4 | 5 | 44 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 2 | 2 | 40 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 5 | 7 | 28 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Joseph Morgan | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.0%
Expected total
46.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.47
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.96
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.