Closing spread
SD -6.5
Total
49.5
Model margin
+2.4est.
SD perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chargers
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
NO lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 57 points. SD are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NO–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 10 | 61 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| NO | Q1 9:50 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q1 8:35 | 5 | 57 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| NO | Q1 5:29 | 11 | 47 | Turnover | 0–14 |
| LAC | Q2 14:52 | 5 | 41 | Field goal | 0–17 |
| NO | Q2 13:02 | 11 | 60 | Touchdown | 7–17 |
| LAC | Q2 8:12 | 10 | 59 | Field goal | 7–20 |
| NO | Q2 3:16 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 7–20 |
| LAC | Q2 1:49 | 9 | 26 | End of half | 7–20 |
| NO | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 31 | Missed field goal | 7–20 |
| LAC | Q3 12:36 | 6 | 22 | Punt | 7–20 |
| NO | Q3 9:41 | 3 | 2 | Safety | 7–22 |
| LAC | Q3 8:36 | 12 | 64 | Touchdown | 7–29 |
| NO | Q3 3:15 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 7–29 |
| LAC | Q3 2:56 | 3 | 7 | Touchdown | 7–36 |
| NO | Q3 2:04 | 10 | 35 | Field goal | 10–36 |
| LAC | Q4 13:53 | 10 | 57 | Touchdown | 10–43 |
| NO | Q4 7:06 | 9 | 60 | Touchdown | 17–43 |
| LAC | Q4 4:04 | 6 | 8 | End of half | 17–43 |
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 16/29 | 173 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deuce McAllister | 16 | 63 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Aaron Brooks | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
4.72%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.4%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.36
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+2.36
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.