Closing spread
SD -4
Total
54
Model margin
+2.0est.
SD perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Saints
- OutDelvin BreauxCBFibula· DNP
- OutJosh HillTEAnkle· DNP
- OutSenio KelemeteGHamstring· DNP
- OutTerron ArmsteadTKnee· DNP
- QuestionableDannell EllerbeLBQuadricep· Limited
- QuestionableJames LaurinaitisLBQuadricep· Limited
- QuestionableKenny VaccaroSAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableTyeler DavisonDTShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableWillie SneadWRToe· Limited
Chargers
- OutBrandon FlowersCBConcussion· DNP
- OutJahleel AddaeSCollarbone· DNP
- OutJoey BosaDEHamstring· Limited
- DoubtfulAntonio GatesTEHamstring· DNP
- DoubtfulKing DunlapTIllness· DNP
- QuestionableJatavis BrownLBHamstring· Full
- QuestionableJoe BarksdaleTFoot· DNP
- QuestionableOrlando FranklinGBack· Limited
Win probability
- Chargers
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
NO lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 57 points. SD are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NO–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Q1 15:00 | 11 | 75 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| LAC | Q1 10:32 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 7–0 |
| NO | Q1 8:39 | 6 | 7 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LAC | Q1 4:40 | 7 | 62 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| NO | Q1 1:10 | 14 | 80 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| LAC | Q2 9:20 | 4 | 75 | Touchdown | 14–14 |
| NO | Q2 7:04 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 14–14 |
| LAC | Q2 6:55 | 4 | 29 | Field goal | 14–17 |
| NO | Q2 4:50 | 4 | -4 | Punt | 14–17 |
| LAC | Q2 2:27 | 13 | 53 | Touchdown | 14–24 |
| NO | Q2 0:13 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 14–24 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 14–24 |
| NO | Q3 13:18 | 9 | 48 | Touchdown | 21–24 |
| LAC | Q3 9:00 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 21–24 |
| NO | Q3 8:15 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 21–24 |
| LAC | Q3 7:16 | 7 | 28 | Punt | 21–24 |
| NO | Q3 4:41 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 21–24 |
| LAC | Q3 3:43 | 15 | 70 | Touchdown | 21–31 |
| NO | Q4 12:15 | 2 | 4 | Turnover | 21–31 |
| LAC | Q4 11:27 | 5 | 12 | Field goal | 21–34 |
| NO | Q4 8:39 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 21–34 |
| LAC | Q4 6:50 | 1 | 3 | Turnover | 21–34 |
| NO | Q4 6:40 | 4 | 13 | Touchdown | 28–34 |
| LAC | Q4 4:50 | 1 | 5 | Turnover | 28–34 |
| NO | Q4 4:42 | 7 | 31 | Touchdown | 35–34 |
| LAC | Q4 1:57 | 4 | -5 | Turnover | 35–34 |
| NO | Q4 1:10 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 35–34 |
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 23/36 | 207 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ingram | 18 | 56 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Daniel Lasco | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Tim Hightower | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Tommylee Lewis | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 4 | -4 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ingram | 6 | 7 | 49 | 0 |
| Michael Thomas | 4 | 9 | 44 | 1 |
| Brandin Cooks | 3 | 6 | 31 | 0 |
| Willie Snead | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 |
| Coby Fleener | 3 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Brandon Coleman | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Tommylee Lewis | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Daniel Lasco | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
2.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.4%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.15
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+1.97
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.