Closing spread
SD -4
Total
54
Model margin
+2.0est.
SD perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chargers
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
NO lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 57 points. SD are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 23/36 | 207 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ingram | 18 | 56 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Daniel Lasco | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Tim Hightower | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Tommylee Lewis | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 4 | -4 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ingram | 6 | 7 | 49 | 0 |
| Michael Thomas | 4 | 9 | 44 | 1 |
| Brandin Cooks | 3 | 6 | 31 | 0 |
| Willie Snead | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 |
| Coby Fleener | 3 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Brandon Coleman | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Tommylee Lewis | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Daniel Lasco | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
2.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.4%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.15
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+1.97
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.