2020 · Week 5

Final / OT

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Justin Herbert

27·30

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · astroturf

Closing spread

NO -7

Total

49.5

Model margin

+3.9est.

NO perspective

Push chance

4.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chargers

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Chargers

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsChargers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chargersedge mapSaints
  • +0.043EPA / play+0.096
  • 43.8%Success rate47.7%
  • +0.154EPA / dropback+0.140
  • -0.141EPA / rush+0.039
  • 7.9%Explosive rate9.5%
  • +0.07CPOE+2.58
  • 45.1%Third-down rate46.0%
  • 60.1%Red-zone TD rate72.9%
  • 2.02Points / drive2.72
  • 1.3%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 57 points. NO are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W8NO @ LAC8–26CHARGERS
2016 · W4NO @ SD35–34NO
2012 · W5SD @ NO24–31NO
2008 · W8SD @ NO32–37NO
2004 · W9NO @ SD17–43CHARGERS
2000 · W2NO @ SD28–27NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLAC–NO
LACQ1 15:0037Punt0–0
NOQ1 13:23512Punt0–0
LACQ1 10:59980Touchdown6–0
NOQ1 6:26615Punt6–0
LACQ1 4:123-11Punt6–0
NOQ1 2:41418Field goal6–3
LACQ2 15:00760Touchdown13–3
NOQ2 11:0139Punt13–3
LACQ2 9:21416Punt13–3
NOQ2 6:4736Turnover13–3
LACQ2 5:4831Touchdown20–3
NOQ2 4:25516Punt20–3
LACQ2 2:303-2Punt20–3
NOQ2 1:59851Touchdown20–10
LACQ2 0:1400End of half20–10
NOQ3 15:00616Punt20–10
LACQ3 11:14612Punt20–10
NOQ3 8:17640Field goal20–13
LACQ3 4:52828Punt20–13
NOQ3 1:231199Touchdown20–20
LACQ4 11:21925Punt20–20
NOQ4 7:1235Punt20–20
LACQ4 5:42478Touchdown27–20
NOQ4 3:40873Touchdown27–27
LACQ4 0:52648Missed field goal27–27
NOOT848Field goal27–30
LACOT59Turnover on downs27–30

Box score

Individual performances

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Herbert20/3426440

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Justin Jackson15714.70
Joshua Kelley11292.60
Justin Herbert482.00
Tyron Johnson177.00
Jalen Guyton1-4-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Williams581092
Jalen Guyton13490
Keenan Allen22291
Hunter Henry48231
Justin Jackson56230
Virgil Green11140
Joshua Kelley1190
K.J. Hill1280
Donald Parham0100

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees33/4732511
Taysom Hill0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alvin Kamara11454.10
Latavius Murray8344.30
Taysom Hill3134.31
Drew Brees111.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Emmanuel Sanders12141220
Alvin Kamara810740
Jared Cook23521
Marquez Callaway46340
Latavius Murray22230
Bennie Fowler26110
Tre'Quan Smith2380
Josh Hill1110
Taysom Hill0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Chargers.

Half-point at risk

4.87%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.6%

Expected total

45.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.24
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.94