Closing spread
NO -7
Total
49.5
Model margin
+3.9est.
NO perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Saints
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.043EPA / play+0.096
- 43.8%Success rate47.7%
- +0.154EPA / dropback+0.140
- -0.141EPA / rush+0.039
- 7.9%Explosive rate9.5%
- +0.07CPOE+2.58
- 45.1%Third-down rate46.0%
- 60.1%Red-zone TD rate72.9%
- 2.02Points / drive2.72
- 1.3%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 57 points. NO are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 20/34 | 264 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jackson | 15 | 71 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Joshua Kelley | 11 | 29 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Justin Herbert | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Tyron Johnson | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Jalen Guyton | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Williams | 5 | 8 | 109 | 2 |
| Jalen Guyton | 1 | 3 | 49 | 0 |
| Keenan Allen | 2 | 2 | 29 | 1 |
| Hunter Henry | 4 | 8 | 23 | 1 |
| Justin Jackson | 5 | 6 | 23 | 0 |
| Virgil Green | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Joshua Kelley | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| K.J. Hill | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Donald Parham | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 33/47 | 325 | 1 | 1 |
| Taysom Hill | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 11 | 45 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 8 | 34 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Drew Brees | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmanuel Sanders | 12 | 14 | 122 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 8 | 10 | 74 | 0 |
| Jared Cook | 2 | 3 | 52 | 1 |
| Marquez Callaway | 4 | 6 | 34 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Bennie Fowler | 2 | 6 | 11 | 0 |
| Tre'Quan Smith | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Josh Hill | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
4.87%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.6%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.24
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.94