Closing spread
SD -5.5
Total
35.5
Model margin
+1.7est.
SD perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chargers
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
NO lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 57 points. SD are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NO–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 13:25 | 4 | 26 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NO | Q1 11:34 | 5 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 8:24 | 5 | 22 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| NO | Q1 6:39 | 9 | 47 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| LAC | Q1 2:00 | 6 | 36 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| NO | Q2 14:20 | 7 | 14 | Turnover | 7–10 |
| LAC | Q2 11:46 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 7–10 |
| NO | Q2 10:34 | 2 | 1 | Turnover | 7–10 |
| LAC | Q2 10:16 | 6 | 40 | Touchdown | 7–17 |
| NO | Q2 7:04 | 13 | 46 | Field goal | 10–23 |
| LAC | Q2 1:54 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 10–24 |
| NO | Q2 1:37 | 8 | 56 | Field goal | 13–24 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 17 | Punt | 13–24 |
| NO | Q3 12:48 | 8 | 29 | Turnover | 13–24 |
| LAC | Q3 8:21 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 13–24 |
| NO | Q3 8:11 | 8 | 41 | Touchdown | 19–24 |
| LAC | Q3 2:54 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 19–24 |
| NO | Q3 1:04 | 3 | 8 | Field goal | 22–24 |
| LAC | Q4 14:52 | 12 | 51 | Turnover on downs | 22–24 |
| NO | Q4 9:05 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 22–24 |
| LAC | Q4 7:24 | 3 | 4 | Field goal | 22–27 |
| NO | Q4 5:08 | 11 | 66 | Touchdown | 28–27 |
| LAC | Q4 0:47 | 4 | -12 | Turnover | 28–27 |
| NO | Q4 0:05 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 28–27 |
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Blake | 33/46 | 259 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 24 | 50 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Jeff Blake | 6 | 13 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Chad Morton | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Horn | 12 | 15 | 116 | 2 |
| Jake Reed | 5 | 9 | 51 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 4 | 5 | 27 | 1 |
| Andrew Glover | 4 | 7 | 23 | 0 |
| Willie Jackson | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Chad Morton | 3 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
3.05%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.6%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.87
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.70
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.