2024 · Week 8

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Spencer Rattler

8·26

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Justin Herbert

SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf

Closing spread

LAC -7

Total

41.5

Model margin

+12.1est.

LAC perspective

Push chance

4.7%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Chargers

Win probability

  • Chargers
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Chargers winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapChargers
  • -0.057EPA / play+0.044
  • 40.6%Success rate42.3%
  • -0.071EPA / dropback+0.127
  • -0.036EPA / rush-0.079
  • 8.5%Explosive rate9.2%
  • -3.67CPOE+1.69
  • 36.3%Third-down rate40.1%
  • 54.2%Red-zone TD rate59.6%
  • 1.72Points / drive2.25
  • 1.6%Turnover rate0.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 57 points. LAC are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2020 · W5LAC @ NO27–30NO
2016 · W4NO @ SD35–34NO
2012 · W5SD @ NO24–31NO
2008 · W8SD @ NO32–37NO
2004 · W9NO @ SD17–43CHARGERS
2000 · W2NO @ SD28–27NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–LAC
LACQ1 15:003-2Punt0–0
NOQ1 13:54432Punt0–0
LACQ1 11:1542Safety2–0
NOQ1 10:20415Punt2–0
LACQ1 8:27620Punt2–0
NOQ1 5:02422Punt2–0
LACQ1 2:38556Field goal2–3
NOQ2 14:5548Punt2–3
LACQ2 12:5538Punt2–3
NOQ2 11:25643Punt2–3
LACQ2 9:441778Touchdown2–9
NOQ2 1:37952Field goal5–9
LACQ2 0:0500End of half5–9
NOQ3 15:0037Punt5–9
LACQ3 13:18431Punt5–9
NOQ3 11:4849Punt5–9
LACQ3 9:36261Touchdown5–16
NOQ3 8:48720Punt5–16
LACQ3 6:323-4Punt5–16
NOQ3 4:50745Field goal8–16
LACQ3 1:05765Field goal8–19
NOQ4 11:55417Punt8–19
LACQ4 10:353-2Punt8–19
NOQ4 8:51533Missed field goal8–19
LACQ4 6:45966Touchdown8–26
NOQ4 3:221263End of half8–26

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Spencer Rattler12/2415600
Jake Haener9/1712200
Taysom Hill1/1300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alvin Kamara10676.70
Taysom Hill4205.00
Kendre Miller3165.30
Jake Haener2105.00
Jamaal Williams242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Olave8141070
Alvin Kamara611550
Juwan Johnson34480
Bub Means11360
Taysom Hill24210
Mason Tipton22140
Foster Moreau0100

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Herbert20/3227920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
J.K. Dobbins17573.41
Justin Herbert44912.30
Kimani Vidal6162.70
Hassan Haskins100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ladd McConkey661112
Josh Palmer24720
Will Dissly57410
Jalen Reagor22350
J.K. Dobbins47110
Eric Tomlinson0100
Simi Fehoko0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +74.3%6.2%2.2%2.9%4.7%3.4%3.6%3.1%2.9%

Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

4.69%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

78.8%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.78
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+7.91
  • Rest differential-0.32
  • Expected margin+12.08