Closing spread
LAC -7
Total
41.5
Model margin
+12.1est.
LAC perspective
Push chance
4.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chargers
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.057EPA / play+0.044
- 40.6%Success rate42.3%
- -0.071EPA / dropback+0.127
- -0.036EPA / rush-0.079
- 8.5%Explosive rate9.2%
- -3.67CPOE+1.69
- 36.3%Third-down rate40.1%
- 54.2%Red-zone TD rate59.6%
- 1.72Points / drive2.25
- 1.6%Turnover rate0.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 57 points. LAC are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Rattler | 12/24 | 156 | 0 | 0 |
| Jake Haener | 9/17 | 122 | 0 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 1/1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 10 | 67 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Kendre Miller | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Jake Haener | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Olave | 8 | 14 | 107 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 6 | 11 | 55 | 0 |
| Juwan Johnson | 3 | 4 | 48 | 0 |
| Bub Means | 1 | 1 | 36 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 2 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Mason Tipton | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Foster Moreau | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 20/32 | 279 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. Dobbins | 17 | 57 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Justin Herbert | 4 | 49 | 12.3 | 0 |
| Kimani Vidal | 6 | 16 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Hassan Haskins | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladd McConkey | 6 | 6 | 111 | 2 |
| Josh Palmer | 2 | 4 | 72 | 0 |
| Will Dissly | 5 | 7 | 41 | 0 |
| Jalen Reagor | 2 | 2 | 35 | 0 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 4 | 7 | 11 | 0 |
| Eric Tomlinson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Simi Fehoko | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
4.69%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
78.8%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.78
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+7.91
- Rest differential-0.32
- Expected margin+12.08