Closing spread
ATL -3
Total
41
Model margin
+2.9est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
6.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Raiders
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
ATL lead 6–1 since 1999
ATL have won 6 straight. Meetings average 43.3 points. OAK are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 17/22 | 220 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Turner | 31 | 139 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Jerious Norwood | 13 | 63 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Harry Douglas | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
6.91%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.8%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.40
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.89
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.