2024 · Week 15

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Kirk Cousins

15·9

Raiders

Las Vegas

QB Aidan O'Connell

Allegiant Stadium · dome · grass

Closing spread

ATL -6.5

Total

44.5

Model margin

+2.8est.

LV perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Raiders

Win probability

  • Raiders
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Raiders winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapRaiders
  • +0.041EPA / play-0.131
  • 48.4%Success rate41.0%
  • +0.083EPA / dropback-0.058
  • -0.015EPA / rush-0.283
  • 9.7%Explosive rate7.2%
  • -0.01CPOE-1.46
  • 39.1%Third-down rate34.2%
  • 56.8%Red-zone TD rate57.1%
  • 2.10Points / drive1.51
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 6–1 since 1999

ATL have won 6 straight. Meetings average 43.3 points. LV are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2020 · W12LV @ ATL6–43ATL
2016 · W2ATL @ OAK35–28ATL
2012 · W6OAK @ ATL20–23ATL
2008 · W9ATL @ OAK24–0ATL
2004 · W14OAK @ ATL10–35ATL
2000 · W13ATL @ OAK14–41RAIDERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–LV
LVQ1 15:001021Turnover0–0
ATLQ1 9:15515Punt0–0
LVQ1 5:1931Punt0–0
ATLQ1 3:44651Touchdown7–0
LVQ1 0:14837Field goal7–3
ATLQ2 11:44942Punt7–3
LVQ2 6:172-3Safety9–3
ATLQ2 5:35620Punt9–3
LVQ2 1:54624End of half9–3
ATLQ3 15:0010Turnover9–3
LVQ3 14:464-2Punt9–3
ATLQ3 12:13515Field goal12–3
LVQ3 9:25520Punt12–3
ATLQ3 7:44531Punt12–3
LVQ3 4:1538Punt12–3
ATLQ3 2:00623Field goal15–3
LVQ4 13:26411Punt15–3
ATLQ4 12:21439Punt15–3
LVQ4 9:402-1Turnover15–3
ATLQ4 8:55515Missed field goal15–3
LVQ4 5:27968Touchdown15–9
ATLQ4 2:54610Punt15–9
LVQ4 1:501065Turnover15–9

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins11/1711211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bijan Robinson221255.70
Tyler Allgeier12433.60
Kirk Cousins300.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Drake London33531
Kyle Pitts44280
Ray-Ray McCloud13140
Bijan Robinson12100
Charlie Woerner2370
Darnell Mooney0100

Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Desmond Ridder23/3920812

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Desmond Ridder5285.60
Alexander Mattison7213.00
Ameer Abdullah382.70
Sincere McCormick781.10

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jakobi Meyers59590
Ameer Abdullah77581
Brock Bowers36350
Tre Tucker23180
Sincere McCormick22170
Michael Mayer12110
Terrace Marshall Jr.1170
Alexander Mattison2430

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -6.53.9%2.6%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%

Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

2.64%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.6%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.81
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.91
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.80