Closing spread
ATL -6.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+2.8est.
LV perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Raiders
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.041EPA / play-0.131
- 48.4%Success rate41.0%
- +0.083EPA / dropback-0.058
- -0.015EPA / rush-0.283
- 9.7%Explosive rate7.2%
- -0.01CPOE-1.46
- 39.1%Third-down rate34.2%
- 56.8%Red-zone TD rate57.1%
- 2.10Points / drive1.51
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 6–1 since 1999
ATL have won 6 straight. Meetings average 43.3 points. LV are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 11/17 | 112 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | 22 | 125 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 12 | 43 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake London | 3 | 3 | 53 | 1 |
| Kyle Pitts | 4 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Bijan Robinson | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Charlie Woerner | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Darnell Mooney | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Desmond Ridder | 23/39 | 208 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Desmond Ridder | 5 | 28 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Alexander Mattison | 7 | 21 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Sincere McCormick | 7 | 8 | 1.1 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakobi Meyers | 5 | 9 | 59 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 7 | 7 | 58 | 1 |
| Brock Bowers | 3 | 6 | 35 | 0 |
| Tre Tucker | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Sincere McCormick | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Michael Mayer | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Terrace Marshall Jr. | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Alexander Mattison | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
2.64%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.6%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.81
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+2.91
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.80