Closing spread
LV -3.5
Total
53
Model margin
+1.5est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.066EPA / play+0.042
- 47.4%Success rate44.3%
- +0.155EPA / dropback+0.145
- -0.067EPA / rush-0.148
- 10.3%Explosive rate8.0%
- +2.18CPOE+1.23
- 45.5%Third-down rate43.8%
- 59.9%Red-zone TD rate55.3%
- 2.49Points / drive2.28
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 6–1 since 1999
ATL have won 6 straight. Meetings average 43.3 points. ATL are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 22/34 | 215 | 0 | 1 |
| Nathan Peterman | 3/5 | 25 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 7 | 27 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Nathan Peterman | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 5 | 6 | 1.2 | 0 |
| Henry Ruggs III | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Renfrow | 7 | 9 | 73 | 0 |
| Henry Ruggs III | 3 | 5 | 56 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 5 | 6 | 54 | 0 |
| Darren Waller | 4 | 7 | 23 | 0 |
| Josh Jacobs | 3 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Bryan Edwards | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Zay Jones | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 1 | 4 | -1 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 22/39 | 185 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ito Smith | 12 | 65 | 5.4 | 1 |
| Brian Hill | 13 | 55 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Tony Brooks-James | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Matt Schaub | 3 | -4 | -1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Ridley | 6 | 9 | 50 | 1 |
| Hayden Hurst | 4 | 8 | 48 | 0 |
| Russell Gage | 3 | 5 | 34 | 0 |
| Christian Blake | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Jaeden Graham | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Ito Smith | 4 | 5 | 10 | 0 |
| Brandon Powell | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
| Brian Hill | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
7.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.1%
Expected total
46.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.20
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.51