2020 · Week 12

Final

Raiders

Las Vegas

QB Derek Carr

6·43

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

Mercedes-Benz Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

LV -3.5

Total

53

Model margin

+1.5est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Raiders

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Raiders

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsRaiders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Raidersedge mapFalcons
  • +0.066EPA / play+0.042
  • 47.4%Success rate44.3%
  • +0.155EPA / dropback+0.145
  • -0.067EPA / rush-0.148
  • 10.3%Explosive rate8.0%
  • +2.18CPOE+1.23
  • 45.5%Third-down rate43.8%
  • 59.9%Red-zone TD rate55.3%
  • 2.49Points / drive2.28
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 6–1 since 1999

ATL have won 6 straight. Meetings average 43.3 points. ATL are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W15ATL @ LV15–9ATL
2016 · W2ATL @ OAK35–28ATL
2012 · W6OAK @ ATL20–23ATL
2008 · W9ATL @ OAK24–0ATL
2004 · W14OAK @ ATL10–35ATL
2000 · W13ATL @ OAK14–41RAIDERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLV–ATL
ATLQ1 15:00411Punt0–0
LVQ1 13:4554Turnover on downs0–0
ATLQ1 11:27625Field goal0–3
LVQ1 8:261-5Turnover0–3
ATLQ1 8:1430Field goal0–6
LVQ1 7:06415Punt0–6
ATLQ1 4:38528Turnover0–6
LVQ1 2:241071Field goal3–6
ATLQ2 12:5937Punt3–6
LVQ2 11:2545Punt3–6
ATLQ2 9:381566Touchdown3–13
LVQ2 2:17832Turnover3–13
ATLQ2 1:01834Field goal3–16
LVQ2 0:0200End of half3–16
LVQ3 15:0031Punt3–16
ATLQ3 13:5835Punt3–16
LVQ3 11:5320Opp touchdown3–23
LVQ3 11:361169Field goal6–23
ATLQ3 6:391348Touchdown6–30
LVQ3 2:00116Turnover6–30
ATLQ3 1:41516Field goal6–33
LVQ4 13:33311Turnover6–33
ATLQ4 12:13435Touchdown6–40
LVQ4 10:4834Punt6–40
ATLQ4 9:24633Field goal6–43
LVQ4 4:57820Punt6–43
ATLQ4 1:4200End of half6–43

Box score

Individual performances

Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Derek Carr22/3421501
Nathan Peterman3/52500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Jacobs7273.90
Nathan Peterman199.00
Devontae Booker561.20
Henry Ruggs III1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Hunter Renfrow79730
Henry Ruggs III35560
Nelson Agholor56540
Darren Waller47230
Josh Jacobs33170
Bryan Edwards12150
Zay Jones1130
Devontae Booker14-10

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan22/3918521

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ito Smith12655.41
Brian Hill13554.20
Matt Ryan155.00
Tony Brooks-James341.30
Matt Schaub3-4-1.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Calvin Ridley69501
Hayden Hurst48480
Russell Gage35340
Christian Blake11170
Jaeden Graham12110
Olamide Zaccheaus13110
Ito Smith45100
Brandon Powell2241
Brian Hill0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Raiders.

Half-point at risk

7.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.1%

Expected total

46.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.20
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.51