Closing spread
ATL -10
Total
49
Model margin
+4.0est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Raiders
- OutKhalif BarnesTGroin· DNP
- OutRichard GordonTEHamstring· DNP
- OutShawntae SpencerCBFoot· DNP
- QuestionableTommy KellyDTFoot· Limited
- ProbableRichard SeymourDTKnee· Limited
- ProbableSebastian JanikowskiKleft Groin· Limited
- ProbableAlex ParsonsCShoulder· Full
- ProbableBrandon MyersTEShoulder· Full
- ProbableDarren McFaddenRBShoulder· Full
- ProbableDarrius Heyward-BeyWRConcussion· Full
- ProbableDavid AusberryTEShoulder· Full
- ProbableTaiwan JonesRBShoulder· Full
Falcons
- OutAntone SmithRBHamstring· DNP
- OutMichael PalmerTEShoulder· DNP
- QuestionableJonathan BabineauxDTGroin· Limited
- QuestionableStephen NicholasLBAnkle· Limited
- ProbableD.J. DavisWRKnee· Full
- ProbableDunta RobinsonCBShoulder· Full
- ProbableGarrett ReynoldsGBack· Full
- ProbableKevin ConeWRKnee· Full
- ProbablePeria JerryDTThigh· Full
- ProbableTodd McClureCPectoral· Full
- ProbableWilliam MooreSHip· Full
Win probability
- Falcons
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
ATL lead 6–1 since 1999
ATL have won 6 straight. Meetings average 43.3 points. ATL are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–ATL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 37 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 13:13 | 3 | -4 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| ATL | Q1 12:02 | 3 | 7 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 9:57 | 8 | 27 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ATL | Q1 5:15 | 2 | 26 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 4:48 | 8 | 75 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| ATL | Q1 0:24 | 10 | 80 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| LV | Q2 9:51 | 10 | 86 | Field goal | 6–7 |
| ATL | Q2 4:11 | 4 | -3 | Turnover | 6–7 |
| LV | Q2 2:44 | 2 | 28 | Touchdown | 13–7 |
| ATL | Q2 1:50 | 4 | 18 | Punt | 13–7 |
| LV | Q2 0:39 | 1 | 1 | End of half | 13–7 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 13–7 |
| ATL | Q3 13:28 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 13–7 |
| LV | Q3 11:50 | 6 | 38 | Punt | 13–7 |
| ATL | Q3 8:35 | 8 | 47 | Field goal | 13–10 |
| LV | Q3 5:06 | 2 | -7 | Turnover | 13–10 |
| ATL | Q3 4:24 | 3 | 0 | Field goal | 13–13 |
| LV | Q3 2:31 | 7 | 42 | Punt | 13–13 |
| ATL | Q4 14:36 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 13–13 |
| LV | Q4 13:32 | 8 | 32 | Punt | 13–13 |
| ATL | Q4 8:40 | 5 | 25 | Punt | 13–13 |
| LV | Q4 6:19 | 6 | 62 | Opp touchdown | 13–20 |
| LV | Q4 2:40 | 9 | 90 | Touchdown | 20–20 |
| ATL | Q4 0:40 | 6 | 43 | Field goal | 20–23 |
| LV | Q4 0:01 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 20–23 |
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 24/37 | 249 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Turner | 11 | 33 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roddy White | 6 | 8 | 72 | 1 |
| Julio Jones | 4 | 8 | 63 | 0 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 4 | 7 | 42 | 0 |
| Harry Douglas | 5 | 7 | 37 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 3 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Michael Turner | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Tommy Gallarda | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
3.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.7%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.06
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+3.99
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.