Closing spread
ATL -10
Total
49
Model margin
+4.0est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Falcons
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
ATL lead 6–1 since 1999
ATL have won 6 straight. Meetings average 43.3 points. ATL are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 24/37 | 249 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Turner | 11 | 33 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roddy White | 6 | 8 | 72 | 1 |
| Julio Jones | 4 | 8 | 63 | 0 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 4 | 7 | 42 | 0 |
| Harry Douglas | 5 | 7 | 37 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 3 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Michael Turner | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Tommy Gallarda | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
3.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.7%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.06
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+3.99
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.