Closing spread
OAK -11
Total
44
Model margin
+4.9est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
1.6%est.
Win probability
- Raiders
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
ATL lead 6–1 since 1999
ATL have won 6 straight. Meetings average 43.3 points. OAK are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | ATL–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | Q1 | 5 | 63 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| LV | Q1 11:31 | 6 | 32 | Punt | 7–0 |
| ATL | Q1 8:28 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| LV | Q1 8:14 | 6 | 22 | Field goal | 7–3 |
| ATL | Q1 4:43 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 7–3 |
| LV | Q1 3:03 | 10 | 65 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| ATL | Q2 12:22 | 3 | 13 | Punt | 7–10 |
| LV | Q2 10:44 | 5 | 80 | Touchdown | 7–17 |
| ATL | Q2 8:07 | 4 | 12 | Turnover | 7–17 |
| LV | Q2 6:29 | 4 | 11 | Punt | 7–17 |
| ATL | Q2 5:09 | 4 | 10 | Punt | 7–17 |
| LV | Q2 3:27 | 9 | 72 | Touchdown | 7–24 |
| ATL | Q2 1:09 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 7–24 |
| LV | Q2 0:39 | 3 | 9 | End of half | 7–24 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 7–31 |
| ATL | Q3 14:41 | 7 | 18 | Punt | 7–31 |
| LV | Q3 10:29 | 3 | 89 | Touchdown | 7–38 |
| ATL | Q3 8:50 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 7–38 |
| LV | Q3 6:55 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 7–38 |
| ATL | Q3 4:45 | 4 | 9 | Punt | 7–38 |
| LV | Q3 3:11 | 3 | 7 | Turnover | 7–38 |
| ATL | Q3 1:32 | 7 | 29 | Touchdown | 14–38 |
| LV | Q4 14:30 | 4 | 42 | Field goal | 14–41 |
| ATL | Q4 11:25 | 8 | 21 | Punt | 14–41 |
| LV | Q4 7:06 | 11 | 63 | End of half | 14–41 |
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Chandler | 7/12 | 97 | 0 | 1 |
| Doug Johnson | 11/17 | 85 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Anderson | 12 | 26 | 2.2 | 1 |
| Chris Chandler | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shawn Jefferson | 7 | 10 | 109 | 0 |
| Reggie Kelly | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Jamal Anderson | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Terance Mathis | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Brian Kozlowski | 1 | 4 | 4 | 1 |
| Tim Dwight | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
1.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.0%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.32
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.88
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.