Closing spread
OAK -4
Total
47.5
Model margin
-0.8est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
2.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Raiders
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
ATL lead 6–1 since 1999
ATL have won 6 straight. Meetings average 43.3 points. OAK are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 26/34 | 396 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devonta Freeman | 17 | 93 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Tevin Coleman | 12 | 46 | 3.8 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Jones | 5 | 5 | 106 | 1 |
| Austin Hooper | 3 | 3 | 84 | 0 |
| Jacob Tamme | 5 | 8 | 75 | 1 |
| Aldrick Robinson | 3 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| Tevin Coleman | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Levine Toilolo | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 3 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Justin Hardy | 1 | 3 | 8 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
2.41%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.8%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.57
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.83
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.