Closing spread
OAK -4
Total
47.5
Model margin
-0.8est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
2.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Falcons
- OutDe'Vondre CampbellLBAnkle· DNP
- OutKeanu NealSKnee· DNP
- QuestionableBrooks ReedDEShoulder· Limited
Raiders
- DoubtfulMatt McCantsTKnee· DNP
- DoubtfulMenelik WatsonTGroin· DNP
- QuestionableGabe JacksonGKnee· Full
- QuestionableRodney HudsonCKnee· Full
- QuestionableTaiwan JonesRBConcussion· Full
Win probability
- Raiders
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
ATL lead 6–1 since 1999
ATL have won 6 straight. Meetings average 43.3 points. OAK are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | ATL–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | Q1 15:00 | 10 | 40 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 10:39 | 5 | 23 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ATL | Q1 7:16 | 6 | 17 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 4:18 | 5 | 10 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ATL | Q1 1:53 | 10 | 88 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| LV | Q2 11:58 | 8 | 55 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| ATL | Q2 7:51 | 10 | 75 | Touchdown | 10–7 |
| LV | Q2 4:46 | 6 | 44 | Punt | 10–7 |
| ATL | Q2 1:33 | 3 | 7 | Field goal | 13–7 |
| LV | Q2 0:38 | 7 | 35 | Missed field goal | 13–7 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 81 | Touchdown | 13–14 |
| ATL | Q3 11:17 | 4 | 64 | Turnover | 13–14 |
| LV | Q3 9:28 | 7 | 28 | Punt | 13–14 |
| ATL | Q3 5:36 | 5 | 85 | Touchdown | 21–14 |
| LV | Q3 3:42 | 13 | 75 | Touchdown | 21–21 |
| ATL | Q4 12:00 | 6 | 80 | Touchdown | 28–21 |
| LV | Q4 9:29 | 7 | 12 | Turnover on downs | 28–21 |
| ATL | Q4 7:12 | 5 | 45 | Touchdown | 35–21 |
| LV | Q4 4:35 | 8 | 75 | Touchdown | 35–28 |
| ATL | Q4 2:12 | 6 | 27 | Punt | 35–28 |
| LV | Q4 0:02 | 1 | 16 | End of half | 35–28 |
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 26/34 | 396 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devonta Freeman | 17 | 93 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Tevin Coleman | 12 | 46 | 3.8 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Jones | 5 | 5 | 106 | 1 |
| Austin Hooper | 3 | 3 | 84 | 0 |
| Jacob Tamme | 5 | 8 | 75 | 1 |
| Aldrick Robinson | 3 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| Tevin Coleman | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Levine Toilolo | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 3 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Justin Hardy | 1 | 3 | 8 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
2.41%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.8%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.57
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.83
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.