Closing spread
ATL -7.5
Total
46
Model margin
+2.3est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
ATL lead 6–1 since 1999
ATL have won 6 straight. Meetings average 43.3 points. ATL are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 13/20 | 145 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt Schaub | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 25 | 103 | 4.1 | 0 |
| T.J. Duckett | 12 | 65 | 5.4 | 4 |
| Mike Vick | 2 | 31 | 15.5 | 0 |
| Stanley Pritchett | 6 | 18 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Justin Griffith | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.07%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.1%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.31
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.26
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.