2008 · Week 9
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 51°F · wind 0mph
Closing spread
WAS -1
Total
37.5
Model margin
+0.1est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Commanders
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.031EPA / play-0.032
- 42.9%Success rate42.3%
- +0.022EPA / dropback+0.004
- -0.103EPA / rush-0.080
- 7.8%Explosive rate7.5%
- +0.13CPOE-1.49
- 41.3%Third-down rate36.0%
- 54.8%Red-zone TD rate55.0%
- 1.61Points / drive1.37
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 6–1 since 1999
Meetings average 38.1 points. WAS are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Leftwich | 7/10 | 129 | 1 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 5/17 | 50 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Parker | 21 | 70 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Najeh Davenport | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
| Byron Leftwich | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 4 | -2 | -0.5 | 0 |
| Nate Washington | 1 | -6 | -6.0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Campbell | 24/43 | 206 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 13 | 51 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Jason Campbell | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Shaun Alexander | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.4%
Expected total
40.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.37
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.12