2008 · Week 9
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 51°F · wind 0mph
Closing spread
WAS -1
Total
37.5
Model margin
+0.1est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Commanders
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.031EPA / play-0.032
- 42.9%Success rate42.3%
- +0.022EPA / dropback+0.004
- -0.103EPA / rush-0.080
- 7.8%Explosive rate7.5%
- +0.13CPOE-1.49
- 41.3%Third-down rate36.0%
- 54.8%Red-zone TD rate55.0%
- 1.61Points / drive1.37
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 6–1 since 1999
Meetings average 38.1 points. WAS are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | PIT–WAS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAS | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 9 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| PIT | Q1 12:57 | 3 | 1 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| WAS | Q1 11:57 | 3 | 5 | Field goal | 0–6 |
| PIT | Q1 11:02 | 5 | 17 | Punt | 0–6 |
| WAS | Q1 8:17 | 5 | 34 | Punt | 0–6 |
| PIT | Q1 5:26 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–6 |
| WAS | Q1 4:26 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–6 |
| PIT | Q1 2:44 | 4 | 16 | Punt | 0–6 |
| WAS | Q1 1:10 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 0–6 |
| PIT | Q2 14:21 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–6 |
| WAS | Q2 12:43 | 3 | -10 | Punt | 0–6 |
| PIT | Q2 11:22 | 7 | 19 | Field goal | 3–6 |
| WAS | Q2 8:09 | 6 | 18 | Punt | 3–6 |
| PIT | Q2 5:38 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 3–6 |
| WAS | Q2 4:24 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–6 |
| PIT | Q2 2:11 | 5 | 23 | Touchdown | 10–6 |
| WAS | Q2 0:32 | 1 | -5 | End of half | 10–6 |
| PIT | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 72 | Touchdown | 16–6 |
| WAS | Q3 10:22 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 16–6 |
| PIT | Q3 8:50 | 3 | -11 | Punt | 16–6 |
| WAS | Q3 6:34 | 6 | 42 | Turnover | 16–6 |
| PIT | Q3 3:41 | 12 | 77 | Touchdown | 23–6 |
| WAS | Q4 11:58 | 13 | 60 | Turnover on downs | 23–6 |
| PIT | Q4 6:55 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 23–6 |
| WAS | Q4 5:23 | 6 | 5 | Turnover on downs | 23–6 |
| PIT | Q4 3:39 | 4 | -4 | Punt | 23–6 |
| WAS | Q4 2:28 | 10 | 53 | Turnover | 23–6 |
| PIT | Q4 0:20 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 23–6 |
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Leftwich | 7/10 | 129 | 1 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 5/17 | 50 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Parker | 21 | 70 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Najeh Davenport | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
| Byron Leftwich | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 4 | -2 | -0.5 | 0 |
| Nate Washington | 1 | -6 | -6.0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Campbell | 24/43 | 206 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 13 | 51 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Jason Campbell | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Shaun Alexander | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.4%
Expected total
40.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.37
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.12