2000 · Week 16
Final
Three Rivers Stadium · outdoors · astroturf · 44°F · wind 0mph
Closing spread
WAS -1
Total
37.5
Model margin
+0.0est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Steelers
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.027EPA / play-0.044
- 41.1%Success rate38.6%
- +0.058EPA / dropback-0.014
- -0.148EPA / rush-0.076
- 8.1%Explosive rate8.9%
- 39.0%Third-down rate37.4%
- 57.1%Red-zone TD rate49.8%
- 1.30Points / drive1.37
- 2.9%Turnover rate1.6%
- -0.093EPA / play allowed-0.119
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 6–1 since 1999
Meetings average 38.1 points. PIT are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff George | 15/27 | 178 | 0 | 2 |
| Brad Johnson | 3/5 | 53 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Davis | 16 | 39 | 2.4 | 0 |
| James Thrash | 1 | -10 | -10.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Alexander | 4 | 6 | 85 | 0 |
| Irving Fryar | 2 | 7 | 28 | 0 |
| Albert Connell | 1 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Andre Reed | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Stephen Davis | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| James Thrash | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kordell Stewart | 11/21 | 175 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Bettis | 25 | 104 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Richard Huntley | 7 | 56 | 8.0 | 2 |
| Kordell Stewart | 8 | 19 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Hines Ward | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Amos Zereoue | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bobby Shaw | 3 | 5 | 71 | 0 |
| Hines Ward | 3 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Jerome Bettis | 1 | 1 | 25 | 0 |
| Mark Bruener | 1 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Courtney Hawkins | 2 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Troy Edwards | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Richard Huntley | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.2%
Expected total
42.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.46
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-2.06
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.04