2016 · Week 1

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

38·16

Commanders

Washington

QB Kirk Cousins

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 79°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

PIT -2.5

Total

49

Model margin

+0.9est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapCommanders
  • +0.085EPA / play+0.118
  • 46.0%Success rate48.2%
  • +0.164EPA / dropback+0.202
  • -0.043EPA / rush-0.033
  • 10.8%Explosive rate10.6%
  • +1.74CPOE+4.99
  • 41.9%Third-down rate44.9%
  • 64.0%Red-zone TD rate51.2%
  • 2.24Points / drive2.32
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 6–1 since 1999

Meetings average 38.1 points. WAS are 2-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W10PIT @ WAS28–27PIT
2020 · W13WAS @ PIT23–17WAS
2012 · W8WAS @ PIT12–27PIT
2008 · W9PIT @ WAS23–6PIT
2004 · W12WAS @ PIT7–16PIT
2000 · W16WAS @ PIT3–24PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–WAS
WASQ1 15:00735Punt0–0
PITQ1 11:1638Punt0–0
WASQ1 9:20854Field goal0–3
PITQ1 5:56529Turnover0–3
WASQ1 3:46419Field goal0–6
PITQ1 1:081177Touchdown7–6
WASQ2 10:10657Turnover on downs7–6
PITQ2 6:191467Touchdown14–6
WASQ2 0:2719End of half14–6
PITQ3 15:00747Field goal17–6
WASQ3 11:18415Turnover17–6
PITQ3 9:05575Touchdown24–6
WASQ3 7:01967Field goal24–9
PITQ3 2:0138Punt24–9
WASQ3 0:19777Touchdown24–16
PITQ4 13:011383Touchdown31–16
WASQ4 5:48525Turnover on downs31–16
PITQ4 4:17645Touchdown38–16
WASQ4 1:54726Turnover38–16
PITQ4 0:1800End of half38–16

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger27/3730031

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeAngelo Williams261435.52
Fitzgerald Toussaint362.00
Ben Roethlisberger1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Brown8111262
Eli Rogers67591
Sammie Coates23560
Jesse James57310
DeAngelo Williams69280

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins30/4332902

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Jones7243.40
Chris Thompson4235.81
Kirk Cousins188.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeSean Jackson6101020
Jordan Reed711640
Jamison Crowder610580
Pierre Garcon66510
Vernon Davis11200
Chris Thompson22160
Matt Jones1190
Josh Doctson1190
Ryan Grant0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.54.3%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

2.09%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.6%

Expected total

45.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.81
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.93