2016 · Week 1
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 79°F · wind 4mph
Closing spread
PIT -2.5
Total
49
Model margin
+0.9est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Commanders
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.085EPA / play+0.118
- 46.0%Success rate48.2%
- +0.164EPA / dropback+0.202
- -0.043EPA / rush-0.033
- 10.8%Explosive rate10.6%
- +1.74CPOE+4.99
- 41.9%Third-down rate44.9%
- 64.0%Red-zone TD rate51.2%
- 2.24Points / drive2.32
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 6–1 since 1999
Meetings average 38.1 points. WAS are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 27/37 | 300 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAngelo Williams | 26 | 143 | 5.5 | 2 |
| Fitzgerald Toussaint | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Brown | 8 | 11 | 126 | 2 |
| Eli Rogers | 6 | 7 | 59 | 1 |
| Sammie Coates | 2 | 3 | 56 | 0 |
| Jesse James | 5 | 7 | 31 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 6 | 9 | 28 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 30/43 | 329 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Jones | 7 | 24 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Chris Thompson | 4 | 23 | 5.8 | 1 |
| Kirk Cousins | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeSean Jackson | 6 | 10 | 102 | 0 |
| Jordan Reed | 7 | 11 | 64 | 0 |
| Jamison Crowder | 6 | 10 | 58 | 0 |
| Pierre Garcon | 6 | 6 | 51 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| Chris Thompson | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Matt Jones | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Josh Doctson | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Ryan Grant | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
2.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.6%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.81
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.93