2020 · Week 13

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Alex Smith

23·17

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 34°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

PIT -5.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

+0.6est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapSteelers
  • -0.051EPA / play+0.035
  • 42.1%Success rate44.0%
  • -0.063EPA / dropback+0.118
  • -0.030EPA / rush-0.134
  • 7.7%Explosive rate7.4%
  • -1.32CPOE-0.90
  • 40.2%Third-down rate42.1%
  • 63.6%Red-zone TD rate70.3%
  • 1.76Points / drive2.12
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 6–1 since 1999

Meetings average 38.1 points. PIT are 5-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W10PIT @ WAS28–27PIT
2016 · W1PIT @ WAS38–16PIT
2012 · W8WAS @ PIT12–27PIT
2008 · W9PIT @ WAS23–6PIT
2004 · W12WAS @ PIT7–16PIT
2000 · W16WAS @ PIT3–24PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–PIT
PITQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
WASQ1 13:25421Punt0–0
PITQ1 11:5130Punt0–0
WASQ1 9:45719Punt0–0
PITQ1 5:27536Punt0–0
WASQ1 2:4933Punt0–0
PITQ1 1:491577Touchdown0–7
WASQ2 10:33416Turnover on downs0–7
PITQ2 9:02830Turnover on downs0–7
WASQ2 5:3536Punt0–13
PITQ2 4:03150Touchdown0–14
WASQ2 3:54521Punt0–14
PITQ2 1:4939Punt0–14
WASQ2 0:50528Field goal3–14
PITQ2 0:0100End of half3–14
WASQ3 15:001695Touchdown10–14
PITQ3 8:1662Punt10–14
WASQ3 5:4737Punt10–14
PITQ3 4:201259Field goal10–17
WASQ4 14:5736Punt10–17
PITQ4 13:163-2Punt10–17
WASQ4 12:23853Touchdown17–17
PITQ4 9:09934Turnover on downs17–17
WASQ4 4:53845Field goal20–17
PITQ4 2:0410Turnover20–17
WASQ4 1:593-2Field goal23–17
PITQ4 0:17222End of half23–17

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith31/4629610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Peyton Barber14231.61
Antonio Gibson2147.00
J.D. McKissic581.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Logan Thomas99981
Cam Sims59920
J.D. McKissic1010700
Steven Sims46170
Terry McLaurin26140
Isaiah Wright1450

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger33/5330521

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Anthony McFarland4153.80
Benny Snell850.60
Jaylen Samuels111.00
Ben Roethlisberger100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
James Washington24801
Diontae Johnson812711
Eric Ebron711680
Chase Claypool24380
JuJu Smith-Schuster710280
Jaylen Samuels34110
Benny Snell2350
Ray-Ray McCloud2340
Anthony McFarland0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.54.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

2.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.6%

Expected total

40.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.64
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.48
  • Expected margin+0.58