2020 · Week 13
Final
Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 34°F · wind 10mph
Closing spread
PIT -5.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+0.6est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Steelers
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.051EPA / play+0.035
- 42.1%Success rate44.0%
- -0.063EPA / dropback+0.118
- -0.030EPA / rush-0.134
- 7.7%Explosive rate7.4%
- -1.32CPOE-0.90
- 40.2%Third-down rate42.1%
- 63.6%Red-zone TD rate70.3%
- 1.76Points / drive2.12
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 6–1 since 1999
Meetings average 38.1 points. PIT are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 31/46 | 296 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Barber | 14 | 23 | 1.6 | 1 |
| Antonio Gibson | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| J.D. McKissic | 5 | 8 | 1.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Thomas | 9 | 9 | 98 | 1 |
| Cam Sims | 5 | 9 | 92 | 0 |
| J.D. McKissic | 10 | 10 | 70 | 0 |
| Steven Sims | 4 | 6 | 17 | 0 |
| Terry McLaurin | 2 | 6 | 14 | 0 |
| Isaiah Wright | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 33/53 | 305 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony McFarland | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Benny Snell | 8 | 5 | 0.6 | 0 |
| Jaylen Samuels | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Washington | 2 | 4 | 80 | 1 |
| Diontae Johnson | 8 | 12 | 71 | 1 |
| Eric Ebron | 7 | 11 | 68 | 0 |
| Chase Claypool | 2 | 4 | 38 | 0 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 7 | 10 | 28 | 0 |
| Jaylen Samuels | 3 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Benny Snell | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Anthony McFarland | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
2.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.6%
Expected total
40.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.64
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.48
- Expected margin+0.58