2024 · Week 10
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 57°F · wind 9mph
Closing spread
WAS -1.5
Total
45
Model margin
+3.7est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Commanders
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.027EPA / play+0.138
- 40.7%Success rate48.1%
- +0.051EPA / dropback+0.211
- -0.124EPA / rush+0.027
- 9.8%Explosive rate8.5%
- +3.65CPOE+4.57
- 39.7%Third-down rate45.9%
- 55.4%Red-zone TD rate67.2%
- 1.86Points / drive2.78
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 6–1 since 1999
Meetings average 38.1 points. WAS are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 14/28 | 195 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Warren | 14 | 66 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Najee Harris | 21 | 53 | 2.5 | 1 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| George Pickens | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Pickens | 5 | 7 | 91 | 1 |
| Mike Williams | 1 | 1 | 32 | 1 |
| Jaylen Warren | 2 | 2 | 29 | 0 |
| Calvin Austin III | 2 | 6 | 20 | 0 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 3 | 3 | 17 | 1 |
| Darnell Washington | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| MyCole Pruitt | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Van Jefferson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Daniels | 17/34 | 202 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Ekeler | 13 | 44 | 3.4 | 2 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 1 |
| Jayden Daniels | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin | 5 | 6 | 113 | 0 |
| Noah Brown | 3 | 7 | 33 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 4 | 8 | 31 | 0 |
| Luke McCaffrey | 1 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Dyami Brown | 2 | 3 | -13 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.9%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.42
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+0.05
- Rest differential-0.48
- Expected margin+3.69