2024 · Week 10

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Russell Wilson

28·27

Commanders

Washington

QB Marcus Mariota

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 57°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

WAS -1.5

Total

45

Model margin

+3.7est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapCommanders
  • -0.027EPA / play+0.138
  • 40.7%Success rate48.1%
  • +0.051EPA / dropback+0.211
  • -0.124EPA / rush+0.027
  • 9.8%Explosive rate8.5%
  • +3.65CPOE+4.57
  • 39.7%Third-down rate45.9%
  • 55.4%Red-zone TD rate67.2%
  • 1.86Points / drive2.78
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 6–1 since 1999

Meetings average 38.1 points. WAS are 2-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2020 · W13WAS @ PIT23–17WAS
2016 · W1PIT @ WAS38–16PIT
2012 · W8WAS @ PIT12–27PIT
2008 · W9PIT @ WAS23–6PIT
2004 · W12WAS @ PIT7–16PIT
2000 · W16WAS @ PIT3–24PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–WAS
PITQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
WASQ1 12:4238Punt0–0
PITQ1 11:25941Touchdown7–0
WASQ1 8:333-1Punt7–0
PITQ1 6:374-5Turnover on downs7–0
WASQ1 5:16315Touchdown7–7
PITQ1 3:4432Punt7–7
WASQ1 2:073-3Punt7–7
PITQ1 1:11525Punt7–7
PITQ2 12:51514Touchdown14–7
WASQ2 10:28617Field goal14–10
PITQ2 8:11612Punt14–10
WASQ2 5:391777Touchdown14–17
PITQ2 0:1600End of half14–17
WASQ3 15:00571Touchdown14–24
PITQ3 12:551070Touchdown21–24
WASQ3 8:0640Punt21–24
PITQ3 7:1845Punt21–24
WASQ3 5:42619Field goal21–27
PITQ3 2:513-4Turnover21–27
WASQ3 1:27412Punt21–27
PITQ4 14:061486Turnover21–27
WASQ4 7:0544Punt21–27
PITQ4 5:46751Touchdown28–27
WASQ4 2:22623Turnover on downs28–27
PITQ4 1:1839End of half28–27

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson14/2819531

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jaylen Warren14664.70
Najee Harris21532.51
Cordarrelle Patterson3144.70
George Pickens144.00
Russell Wilson430.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
George Pickens57911
Mike Williams11321
Jaylen Warren22290
Calvin Austin III26200
Pat Freiermuth33171
Darnell Washington1360
MyCole Pruitt0100
Van Jefferson0200

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jayden Daniels17/3420200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Austin Ekeler13443.42
Jeremy McNichols471.81
Jayden Daniels351.70
Chris Rodriguez Jr.242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terry McLaurin561130
Noah Brown37330
Zach Ertz48310
Luke McCaffrey13230
Olamide Zaccheaus1380
Austin Ekeler1270
Dyami Brown23-130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +1.53.8%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

2.12%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.9%

Expected total

44.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.42
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.05
  • Rest differential-0.48
  • Expected margin+3.69