2004 · Week 12
Final
Heinz Field · outdoors · dessograss · 38°F · wind 15mph
Closing spread
PIT -10
Total
34.5
Model margin
+4.3est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.121EPA / play+0.044
- 38.9%Success rate44.9%
- -0.102EPA / dropback+0.136
- -0.145EPA / rush-0.028
- 6.6%Explosive rate10.4%
- 31.9%Third-down rate44.9%
- 56.8%Red-zone TD rate56.0%
- 1.03Points / drive1.83
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.1%
- -0.104EPA / play allowed-0.133
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 6–1 since 1999
Meetings average 38.1 points. PIT are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Ramsey | 19/34 | 138 | 1 | 1 |
| Rod Gardner | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladell Betts | 8 | 34 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Clinton Portis | 6 | 17 | 2.8 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 9/20 | 131 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Bettis | 31 | 100 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 6 | 4 | 0.7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
3.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.6%
Expected total
42.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.76
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.32