2012 · Week 8

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Robert Griffin

12·27

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 45°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

PIT -4.5

Total

44.5

Model margin

+1.6est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapSteelers
  • +0.137EPA / play-0.007
  • 46.7%Success rate42.0%
  • +0.233EPA / dropback+0.094
  • +0.030EPA / rush-0.168
  • 12.8%Explosive rate8.6%
  • +4.84CPOE+0.59
  • 35.5%Third-down rate41.9%
  • 67.7%Red-zone TD rate61.7%
  • 2.11Points / drive1.66
  • 1.4%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 6–1 since 1999

Meetings average 38.1 points. PIT are 5-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W10PIT @ WAS28–27PIT
2020 · W13WAS @ PIT23–17WAS
2016 · W1PIT @ WAS38–16PIT
2008 · W9PIT @ WAS23–6PIT
2004 · W12WAS @ PIT7–16PIT
2000 · W16WAS @ PIT3–24PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–PIT
PITQ1 15:001276Touchdown0–7
WASQ1 7:5536Punt0–7
PITQ1 5:48442Field goal0–10
WASQ1 2:491385Touchdown6–10
PITQ2 11:331069Touchdown6–17
WASQ2 6:17518Punt6–17
PITQ2 4:09546Field goal6–20
WASQ2 1:5630Punt6–20
PITQ2 1:2331Punt6–20
WASQ2 0:3221End of half6–20
WASQ3 15:00649Field goal9–20
PITQ3 11:521180Touchdown9–27
WASQ3 5:13417Punt9–27
PITQ3 3:083-3Punt9–27
WASQ3 1:08822Field goal12–27
PITQ4 12:06418Punt12–27
WASQ4 9:411360Turnover on downs12–27
PITQ4 4:11926Turnover on downs12–27
WASQ4 0:2600End of half12–27

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Robert Griffin III16/3417710
Josh Morgan0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alfred Morris13594.50
Josh Morgan199.00
Robert Griffin III681.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Josh Morgan58460
Logan Paulsen46430
Niles Paul11370
Santana Moss49211
Leonard Hankerson14160
Dezmon Briscoe12140
Chris Cooley0100
Evan Royster0100
Aldrick Robinson0100
Robert Griffin III0100

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger24/3322230

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Dwyer171076.30
Chris Rainey4266.50
Ben Roethlisberger263.00
Baron Batch410.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Wallace79620
Emmanuel Sanders35560
Heath Miller46461
Antonio Brown46380
Jonathan Dwyer1180
Baron Batch1180
Will Johnson2281
Leonard Pope1111
Chris Rainey12-50

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.54.2%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

1.91%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.3%

Expected total

45.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.91
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.57