2012 · Week 8
Final
Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 45°F · wind 10mph
Closing spread
PIT -4.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+1.6est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Steelers
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.137EPA / play-0.007
- 46.7%Success rate42.0%
- +0.233EPA / dropback+0.094
- +0.030EPA / rush-0.168
- 12.8%Explosive rate8.6%
- +4.84CPOE+0.59
- 35.5%Third-down rate41.9%
- 67.7%Red-zone TD rate61.7%
- 2.11Points / drive1.66
- 1.4%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 6–1 since 1999
Meetings average 38.1 points. PIT are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Griffin III | 16/34 | 177 | 1 | 0 |
| Josh Morgan | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfred Morris | 13 | 59 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Josh Morgan | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Robert Griffin III | 6 | 8 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Morgan | 5 | 8 | 46 | 0 |
| Logan Paulsen | 4 | 6 | 43 | 0 |
| Niles Paul | 1 | 1 | 37 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 4 | 9 | 21 | 1 |
| Leonard Hankerson | 1 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Dezmon Briscoe | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Chris Cooley | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Evan Royster | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Aldrick Robinson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Robert Griffin III | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 24/33 | 222 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Dwyer | 17 | 107 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Chris Rainey | 4 | 26 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Baron Batch | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Wallace | 7 | 9 | 62 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 3 | 5 | 56 | 0 |
| Heath Miller | 4 | 6 | 46 | 1 |
| Antonio Brown | 4 | 6 | 38 | 0 |
| Jonathan Dwyer | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Baron Batch | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Will Johnson | 2 | 2 | 8 | 1 |
| Leonard Pope | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Chris Rainey | 1 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
1.91%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.3%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.91
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.57