Closing spread
JAX -5.5
Total
43
Model margin
-3.9est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.004EPA / play-0.162
- 44.6%Success rate36.3%
- +0.013EPA / dropback-0.203
- -0.032EPA / rush-0.092
- 8.0%Explosive rate8.2%
- +3.08CPOE-3.61
- 41.7%Third-down rate28.7%
- 62.2%Red-zone TD rate72.0%
- 1.65Points / drive1.21
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DET lead 5–2 since 1999
DET have won 5 straight. Meetings average 49.1 points. DET are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Garrard | 18/25 | 238 | 2 | 0 |
| Cleo Lemon | 0/2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 18 | 80 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 11 | 70 | 6.4 | 3 |
| David Garrard | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Cleo Lemon | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 5/10 | 104 | 0 | 1 |
| Drew Stanton | 6/8 | 94 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Smith | 23 | 96 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Rudi Johnson | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Drew Stanton | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
38.8%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.46
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-2.90
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-3.87