2024 · Week 11

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Mac Jones

6·52

Lions

Detroit

QB Jared Goff

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

DET -14

Total

47.5

Model margin

+4.6est.

DET perspective

Push chance

2.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapLions
  • -0.023EPA / play+0.156
  • 41.5%Success rate49.6%
  • +0.004EPA / dropback+0.267
  • -0.067EPA / rush+0.021
  • 9.6%Explosive rate11.5%
  • -0.88CPOE+5.81
  • 36.6%Third-down rate48.1%
  • 61.8%Red-zone TD rate74.9%
  • 1.74Points / drive3.02
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DET lead 5–2 since 1999

DET have won 5 straight. Meetings average 49.1 points. DET are 5-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W13JAX @ DET14–40DET
2020 · W6DET @ JAX34–16DET
2016 · W11JAX @ DET19–26DET
2012 · W9DET @ JAX31–14DET
2008 · W10JAX @ DET38–14JAX
2004 · W10DET @ JAX17–23JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–DET
JAXQ1 15:00829Field goal3–0
DETQ1 9:361065Touchdown3–7
JAXQ1 4:5938Punt3–7
DETQ1 2:531393Touchdown3–14
JAXQ2 12:263-2Punt3–14
DETQ2 10:51864Touchdown3–21
JAXQ2 6:39511Punt3–21
DETQ2 4:58484Touchdown3–28
JAXQ2 2:461058Field goal6–28
DETQ3 15:00480Touchdown6–35
JAXQ3 12:5531Punt6–35
DETQ3 12:051593Touchdown6–42
JAXQ3 4:16532Turnover6–42
DETQ3 2:18996Touchdown6–49
JAXQ4 13:23830Turnover on downs6–49
DETQ4 9:53423Field goal6–52
JAXQ4 7:4933Punt6–52
DETQ4 6:451049End of half6–52

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mac Jones17/2913801

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Travis Etienne12272.30
Mac Jones273.50
Brian Thomas Jr.144.00
D'Ernest Johnson231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brian Thomas Jr.57820
Evan Engram57280
Parker Washington13100
Travis Etienne3360
Brenton Strange1160
Gabe Davis1330
Luke Farrell1230
Devin Duvernay0200

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff24/2941240
Hendon Hooker3/43700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Montgomery15755.02
Jahmyr Gibbs11696.31
Jared Goff4215.30
Craig Reynolds22110.50
Sione Vaki591.80
Hendon Hooker430.80
Jameson Williams122.00
Amon-Ra St. Brown1-4-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amon-Ra St. Brown11111612
Jameson Williams461241
Jahmyr Gibbs11540
Kalif Raymond22300
Tim Patrick34260
Shane Zylstra11220
David Montgomery33200
Allen Robinson1270
Brock Wright1151

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +147.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

2.95%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.3%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.96
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.07
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.60