Closing spread
DET -14
Total
47.5
Model margin
+4.6est.
DET perspective
Push chance
2.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Lions
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.023EPA / play+0.156
- 41.5%Success rate49.6%
- +0.004EPA / dropback+0.267
- -0.067EPA / rush+0.021
- 9.6%Explosive rate11.5%
- -0.88CPOE+5.81
- 36.6%Third-down rate48.1%
- 61.8%Red-zone TD rate74.9%
- 1.74Points / drive3.02
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DET lead 5–2 since 1999
DET have won 5 straight. Meetings average 49.1 points. DET are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 17/29 | 138 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Etienne | 12 | 27 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Mac Jones | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Thomas Jr. | 5 | 7 | 82 | 0 |
| Evan Engram | 5 | 7 | 28 | 0 |
| Parker Washington | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Travis Etienne | 3 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Brenton Strange | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Gabe Davis | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Luke Farrell | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Devin Duvernay | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 24/29 | 412 | 4 | 0 |
| Hendon Hooker | 3/4 | 37 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Montgomery | 15 | 75 | 5.0 | 2 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 11 | 69 | 6.3 | 1 |
| Jared Goff | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Craig Reynolds | 2 | 21 | 10.5 | 0 |
| Sione Vaki | 5 | 9 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Hendon Hooker | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Jameson Williams | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 11 | 11 | 161 | 2 |
| Jameson Williams | 4 | 6 | 124 | 1 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 1 | 1 | 54 | 0 |
| Kalif Raymond | 2 | 2 | 30 | 0 |
| Tim Patrick | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Shane Zylstra | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Allen Robinson | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Brock Wright | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
2.95%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.3%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.96
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-0.07
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.60