Closing spread
DET -6
Total
44
Model margin
+1.8est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
2.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.004EPA / play-0.115
- 45.2%Success rate40.0%
- +0.056EPA / dropback-0.106
- -0.131EPA / rush-0.134
- 8.6%Explosive rate7.4%
- -2.29CPOE-5.09
- 41.4%Third-down rate28.8%
- 61.9%Red-zone TD rate56.9%
- 1.65Points / drive0.96
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DET lead 5–2 since 1999
DET have won 5 straight. Meetings average 49.1 points. JAX are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 22/33 | 285 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joique Bell | 13 | 73 | 5.6 | 1 |
| Mikel Leshoure | 16 | 70 | 4.4 | 3 |
| Kevin Smith | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Johnson | 7 | 8 | 129 | 0 |
| Ryan Broyles | 6 | 6 | 52 | 0 |
| Joique Bell | 3 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| Tony Scheffler | 2 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Titus Young | 2 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Brandon Pettigrew | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Kevin Smith | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Will Heller | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Mikel Leshoure | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blaine Gabbert | 27/38 | 220 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashad Jennings | 12 | 45 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Jalen Parmele | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Blaine Gabbert | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cecil Shorts | 3 | 4 | 56 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 4 | 6 | 41 | 0 |
| Laurent Robinson | 6 | 9 | 41 | 0 |
| Micheal Spurlock | 5 | 5 | 35 | 1 |
| Justin Blackmon | 5 | 9 | 32 | 1 |
| Jalen Parmele | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Rashad Jennings | 3 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
2.76%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.8%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.85
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+0.11
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.75