2012 · Week 9

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

31·14

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Blaine Gabbert

EverBank Field · outdoors · grass · 81°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

DET -6

Total

44

Model margin

+1.8est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

2.8%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapJaguars
  • -0.004EPA / play-0.115
  • 45.2%Success rate40.0%
  • +0.056EPA / dropback-0.106
  • -0.131EPA / rush-0.134
  • 8.6%Explosive rate7.4%
  • -2.29CPOE-5.09
  • 41.4%Third-down rate28.8%
  • 61.9%Red-zone TD rate56.9%
  • 1.65Points / drive0.96
  • 2.5%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DET lead 5–2 since 1999

DET have won 5 straight. Meetings average 49.1 points. JAX are 2-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W11JAX @ DET6–52DET
2022 · W13JAX @ DET14–40DET
2020 · W6DET @ JAX34–16DET
2016 · W11JAX @ DET19–26DET
2008 · W10JAX @ DET38–14JAX
2004 · W10DET @ JAX17–23JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–JAX
DETQ1 15:00622Punt0–0
JAXQ1 12:5136Punt0–0
DETQ1 11:271158Missed field goal0–0
JAXQ1 4:5337Punt0–0
DETQ1 3:061391Touchdown7–0
JAXQ2 12:163-5Punt7–0
DETQ2 11:19753Touchdown14–0
JAXQ2 7:58518Punt14–0
DETQ2 4:401161Touchdown21–0
JAXQ2 0:29531End of half21–0
JAXQ3 15:00624Turnover21–0
DETQ3 11:50631Punt21–0
JAXQ3 8:101258Turnover21–0
DETQ3 1:57640Field goal24–0
JAXQ4 13:561168Touchdown24–8
DETQ4 8:36980Touchdown31–8
JAXQ4 2:421272Touchdown31–14
DETQ4 0:5000End of half31–14

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford22/3328500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joique Bell13735.61
Mikel Leshoure16704.43
Kevin Smith382.70
Matthew Stafford2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Calvin Johnson781290
Ryan Broyles66520
Joique Bell34360
Tony Scheffler23280
Titus Young25200
Brandon Pettigrew13110
Kevin Smith1190
Will Heller0100
Mikel Leshoure0200

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blaine Gabbert27/3822022

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rashad Jennings12453.80
Jalen Parmele5153.00
Blaine Gabbert341.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cecil Shorts34560
Marcedes Lewis46410
Laurent Robinson69410
Micheal Spurlock55351
Justin Blackmon59321
Jalen Parmele1180
Rashad Jennings3470

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -64.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

2.76%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.8%

Expected total

42.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.85
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.11
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.75