2022 · Week 13

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Trevor Lawrence

14·40

Lions

Detroit

QB Jared Goff

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

DET -1

Total

51.5

Model margin

+1.3est.

DET perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapLions
  • +0.045EPA / play+0.073
  • 46.6%Success rate45.7%
  • +0.137EPA / dropback+0.173
  • -0.100EPA / rush-0.070
  • 9.3%Explosive rate9.5%
  • +1.07CPOE-1.27
  • 42.0%Third-down rate41.5%
  • 59.3%Red-zone TD rate64.6%
  • 2.07Points / drive2.36
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DET lead 5–2 since 1999

DET have won 5 straight. Meetings average 49.1 points. DET are 5-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W11JAX @ DET6–52DET
2020 · W6DET @ JAX34–16DET
2016 · W11JAX @ DET19–26DET
2012 · W9DET @ JAX31–14DET
2008 · W10JAX @ DET38–14JAX
2004 · W10DET @ JAX17–23JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–DET
JAXQ1 15:00217Turnover0–0
DETQ1 14:08738Touchdown0–7
JAXQ1 10:55967Field goal3–7
DETQ1 7:42775Touchdown3–14
JAXQ1 4:04730Punt3–14
DETQ1 0:56859Field goal3–17
JAXQ2 12:3933Punt3–17
DETQ2 11:32741Field goal3–20
JAXQ2 6:58851Field goal6–20
DETQ2 4:151047Field goal6–23
JAXQ2 0:3138End of half6–23
DETQ3 15:001156Touchdown6–30
JAXQ3 10:351680Touchdown14–30
DETQ3 2:541254Field goal14–33
JAXQ4 12:213-2Punt14–33
DETQ4 10:161268Touchdown14–40
JAXQ4 2:43412Turnover on downs14–40
DETQ4 0:5300End of half14–40

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trevor Lawrence17/3117910
C.J. Beathard2/3600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Travis Etienne13544.20
Trevor Lawrence4328.00
Snoop Conner166.00
Jamal Agnew133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Christian Kirk681040
Evan Engram57301
Marvin Jones14170
Zay Jones27160
Travis Etienne33120
Tim Jones1130
Luke Farrell1130
Chris Manhertz0100
Jamal Agnew0100

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff31/4134020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
D'Andre Swift14624.41
Jamaal Williams11353.21
Justin Jackson144.00
Amon-Ra St. Brown122.00
Nate Sudfeld2-1-0.50
Kalif Raymond1-6-6.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amon-Ra St. Brown11121142
DJ Chark56980
D'Andre Swift46490
Brock Wright22250
Josh Reynolds34190
Justin Jackson35190
Kalif Raymond22120
Shane Zylstra1140
Jameson Williams0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +14.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.5%

Expected total

45.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.65
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+1.29