Closing spread
DET -1
Total
51.5
Model margin
+1.3est.
DET perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Lions
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.045EPA / play+0.073
- 46.6%Success rate45.7%
- +0.137EPA / dropback+0.173
- -0.100EPA / rush-0.070
- 9.3%Explosive rate9.5%
- +1.07CPOE-1.27
- 42.0%Third-down rate41.5%
- 59.3%Red-zone TD rate64.6%
- 2.07Points / drive2.36
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DET lead 5–2 since 1999
DET have won 5 straight. Meetings average 49.1 points. DET are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 17/31 | 179 | 1 | 0 |
| C.J. Beathard | 2/3 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Etienne | 13 | 54 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 4 | 32 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Snoop Conner | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Jamal Agnew | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Kirk | 6 | 8 | 104 | 0 |
| Evan Engram | 5 | 7 | 30 | 1 |
| Marvin Jones | 1 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Zay Jones | 2 | 7 | 16 | 0 |
| Travis Etienne | 3 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Tim Jones | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Luke Farrell | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Chris Manhertz | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamal Agnew | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 31/41 | 340 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Andre Swift | 14 | 62 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Jamaal Williams | 11 | 35 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Justin Jackson | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Nate Sudfeld | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
| Kalif Raymond | 1 | -6 | -6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 11 | 12 | 114 | 2 |
| DJ Chark | 5 | 6 | 98 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift | 4 | 6 | 49 | 0 |
| Brock Wright | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Josh Reynolds | 3 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Justin Jackson | 3 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Kalif Raymond | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Shane Zylstra | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Jameson Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.5%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.65
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+1.29